Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
West Ham vs Manchester City Winner?
Manchester City has won 17 of their last 20 league matches against West Ham, and the Hammers are missing their top scorer.
Will DHS funding bill become law before Apr 1, 2026?
With TSA absences doubling and agents missing their first full paycheck this week, the impending collapse of Spring Break air travel will likely force a short-term funding compromise before April 1.
Men's March Madness Round of 64 Qualifiers
Retail bettors are ignoring the First Four trap; Miami's zero Quad 1 wins make a play-in game highly likely, effectively halving their chances of reaching the Round of 64.
Will Shohei Ohtani win World Baseball Classic MVP — :: Japan
With Japan's tournament win probability hovering around 23 percent, Ohtani's 20 percent MVP price mathematically ignores the risk of his restricted pitching role and internal team competition.
Will Powell say Dot Plot at his Mar 2026 press conference?
Despite the dot plot starring in the March FOMC meeting, Powell has uttered the phrase in just 4 of his last 20 SEP press conferences, preferring the official SEP moniker 80% of the time.
Will the high temp in NYC be <45° on Mar 13, 2026? — 44° or below
While Weather.com shows a chilly 43°F high for NYC today, the National Weather Service's official 48°F forecast and developing south winds suggest the market is severely underpricing a warm afternoon.
How many awards will Sentimental Value win at the Oscars?
Despite fears of a 9-nomination shutout, Sentimental Value holds a massive trump card: a Best Director nomination that historically guarantees a win in the Best International Feature category.
Will the maximum temperature be 43-44° on Mar 13, 2026?
Minneapolis already hit 45°F at 12:53 AM today before a cold front swept through, effectively locking in a daily high above the 44°F market ceiling before most traders even woke up.
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in February?
With consensus forecasts at 0.3% and the Manheim used car index rising 0.8% in February, a Core CPI print of 0.1% or lower would require a statistical miracle.
Will the high temp in LA be 72-73° on Mar 11, 2026?
With the official NWS forecast sitting at 71°F and alternative models projecting just 67°F, betting on a narrow 72-73°F overshoot ignores the stubborn reality of LAX's marine layer.
Canada vs Cuba Winner?
Prediction markets price Canada at 60%, but traditional sportsbooks list Cuba as a -162 favorite—a massive 19-point divergence driven by a severe pitching mismatch and a brutal scheduling turnaround for the Canadians.
Will average gas prices be above $3.590?
With wholesale RBOB gasoline at $2.65, the math dictates a retail equilibrium of $3.65. The pump is still catching up to the pipeline, giving the AAA average ample runway to cross $3.590.
Will the maximum temperature be >56° on Mar 11, 2026?
Consumer apps are screaming 61 degrees for Boston today, but the National Weather Service's official airport forecast is a chilly 48 degrees. Here is why the marine layer makes NO the smart play.
Will Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally. have At least 300000 album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for Mar 13, 2026?
Harry's House moved a massive 330,000 pure copies in 2022, but mid-week forecasts for his new album project just '250K+ pure' sales, making the 300,000 threshold a steep climb.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >97.99 on Mar 13, 2026? — 98.0 or above
WTI crude plummeted 11.9 percent to 83.45 dollars on March 10 after the G7 threatened to unleash 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, making a 17 percent rebound by Friday highly improbable.
What will Bernie Sanders say during LIVE: Get Out The Vote in Illinois?
Bernie Sanders explicitly disavowed the term middle class in August 2025, stating that the middle class is comfortable while his base is the working class.
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 3?
With Episode 3 titled Did You Vote for a Swap?, the market's 29 percent price drastically underestimates how often Jeff Probst uses the word trust to interrogate fractured alliances at Tribal Council.
Will the high temp in LA be 67-68° on Mar 10, 2026?
With the NWS forecasting a high of 65°F and Robinhood traders pricing the median around 65-66°F, the 67-68°F bin is a significant overshoot for LAX's marine-cooled microclimate.
Will the minimum temperature be >40° on Mar 10, 2026?
Denver's morning low was a safe 45 degrees, but a shallow cold front has kept afternoon temperatures stuck at 47 degrees—setting the stage for a rapid plunge below 40 degrees tonight.
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the March Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?
ASX cash rate futures are pricing a 78 percent probability that the RBA holds rates in March, making the prediction market's 52 percent price a massive dislocation from institutional money.