Will the high temp in LA be 67-68° on Mar 10, 2026?

The bull case relies on the temperature overshooting the updated NWS forecast and the Robinhood market median. First, some local sources, such as LAist and National Today on March 10, forecast highs of 67-74°F for the inland areas and beaches. If LAX experiences similar temperatures, it could reach the 67-68°F bin. Second, a Google Weather snippet from March 10 forecasts a high of 68°F for Los Angeles. If this forecast is accurate for LAX, the market could resolve to YES. Third, the NWS forecast from March 8 predicted a high of 67°F for LAX. If this older forecast proves more accurate than the updated March 9 forecast, the temperature could fall within the 67-68°F bin.

The bear case is supported by the updated NWS forecast, the Robinhood market, and the marine layer cooling bias. First, the updated NWS forecast from March 9 predicts a high of 65°F for LAX, which is below the 67-68°F bin. Second, the Robinhood market for '>64°F' is trading at 74¢ on March 9, implying a median high of ~65-66°F. This suggests the market expects the temperature to fall short of the 67-68°F bin. Third, LAX has a known marine layer cooling bias, which often causes temperatures to underperform synoptic model forecasts. This makes an overshoot to 67-68°F less likely. Furthermore, the current temperature at LAX is likely around 59-64°F, based on various sources on March 10. Since it is already 3:00 PM PDT, the high has likely already been reached or is very close to being reached.