Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will the maximum temperature be 59-60° on Apr 21, 2026?
With the National Weather Service officially forecasting 62°F and sunny skies for DC today, betting on a narrow 59-60°F finish requires a specific meteorological failure that atmospheric variance rarely allows.
Will the maximum temperature be 48-49° on Apr 21, 2026?
With a coastal seabreeze threatening to cap Boston in the mid-40s and offshore winds capable of pushing it into the 50s, this narrow 48-49°F bin is a highly improbable donut hole.
Will the high temp in Chicago be 73-74° on Apr 21, 2026? — 73° to 74°
With the NWS officially forecasting 76°F and strong southwest winds driving warm advection, Chicago is primed to blast past this narrow 73-74°F window.
Will the maximum temperature be 69-70° on Apr 21, 2026?
With models split between a rain-cooled 65 degrees and a sun-spiked 75 degrees, betting against a narrow 2-degree temperature bin is the highest-percentage play.
Will the high temp in Miami be >86° on Apr 20, 2026? — 87° or above
With temperatures stalled at 83°F at 3:00 PM and a cold front bringing afternoon thunderstorms, a 4-degree spike to 87°F is meteorologically improbable.
Will the maximum temperature be 87-88° on Apr 20, 2026?
With Las Vegas already hitting 84°F by 11:30 AM and the NWS forecasting 89-90°F, the chances of stalling in this narrow 2-degree window are rapidly evaporating.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >99.99 on Apr 20, 2026? — 100.0 or above
WTI crashed to $83.85 on Friday, and despite weekend geopolitical jitters pushing overnight prices to $94, a $100 settle requires an improbable 7 percent intraday surge.
Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.0%?
A 21.2% surge in March gasoline prices mechanically guarantees a massive nominal retail sales print, overpowering weak consumer sentiment.
Will the maximum temperature be 72-73° on Apr 19, 2026?
Despite some point forecasts targeting 72 or 73 degrees, standard meteorological variance and persistent cold air advection give this narrow 2-degree bin only a 1-in-4 chance of hitting.
What will the announcers say during Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain UFC Fight?
With the fight already concluded, the depressed 23-cent market price strongly signals that strict resolution rules and non-stop action crowded out the target words.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >90.99 on Apr 20, 2026? — 91.0 or above
WTI crude plummeted to $83.85 on Friday, meaning oil needs a statistically rare 8.5% single-day rally by Monday to cross the $91.00 threshold.
Will the high temp in Philadelphia be 72-73° on Apr 18, 2026?
With the National Weather Service forecasting 69°F and southeast winds bringing marine cooling, fading this narrow 2-degree temperature bracket is the mathematically sound play.
Will the high temp in NYC be 63-64° on Apr 18, 2026? — 63° to 64°
With the National Weather Service officially forecasting 67-68°F for Central Park, this narrow 63-64°F bin is stranded 3 to 4 degrees below expectations, making NO the statistically superior position.
Will the minimum temperature be 56-57° on Apr 17, 2026?
With LAX already sitting at 56°F at 3:40 AM, any further cooling over the next three hours will push the daily minimum below the narrow target range, invalidating the YES side.
What will Donald Trump say during Turning Point USA: Build the Red Wall?
Trump has blasted NATO on Truth Social multiple times since April 8, making the alliance a top grievance heading into an unscripted rally environment where he historically plays the hits.
Will the high temp in Miami be 86-87° on Apr 17, 2026? — 86° to 87°
With a persistent easterly sea breeze and an official NWS forecast of 83°F, an 86°F print requires a massive same-day forecast bust.
Will the minimum temperature be <59° on Apr 17, 2026?
Oklahoma City is currently 69°F, but the NWS is calling for a 46°F low tonight as a massive cold front arrives. With an 82% historical hit rate, the evening crash makes sub-59°F nearly certain.
Will the high temp in NYC be <77° on Apr 17, 2026? — 76° or below
Central Park already recorded 77.0°F at 1:00 AM EDT, effectively locking in a daily high that guarantees a NO resolution before sunrise.
Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.2%?
Gasoline prices surged 21.2% in March, creating a massive nominal tailwind that mechanically adds roughly 1.5 percentage points to retail sales, making a >1.2% print highly likely.
Will Dandelion have at least 60,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dandelion?
Despite a massive 160,000 total unit projection, prediction markets price Ella Langley's chances of hitting just 50,000 pure sales at a dismal 3%.