Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 104 USD/Bbl on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Brent crude is trading near $101, requiring a massive 3% intraday rally to breach $104 by 5:00 PM. Without a total diplomatic collapse, the bearish momentum will hold.
Will US nonfarm payrolls for April 2026 be above -40K?
With April ADP private payrolls surging by 109,000 and jobless claims hitting a 57-year low, a catastrophic 110,000-job miss from consensus is highly improbable.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >88.99 on May 6, 2026? — 89.0 or above
WTI crude has plunged up to 9 percent today on US-Iran peace rumors, but at $92 to $98, it retains a critical buffer to defend the $88.99 threshold before settlement.
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?
Despite our historical 25% win rate on Survivor mentions, 'safe' is a structural guarantee in Probst's 25-year immunity script, overcoming the tail risk of episode editing.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >99.99 on May 6, 2026? — 100.0 or above
WTI crude holds a massive $4.40 buffer above the $100 threshold, requiring a rare 4.4 percent single-day collapse to resolve NO before tomorrow's settle.
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Hike 1-25bps at the May Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?
The RBA has already spoken: an 8-1 board vote delivered a 25 basis point hike on May 5, 2026, making this market a definitive YES.
Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on May 5, 2026?
With the official NWS forecast at 78-79°F and morning clouds suppressing daytime heating, hitting the narrow 80-81°F bin requires threading a very tight meteorological needle.
Will the high temp in Philadelphia be 83-84° on May 5, 2026?
With the NWS officially forecasting 85°F and southwest winds gusting to 35 mph, Philadelphia is primed to blow right past the narrow 83-84°F target bin today.
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility - Des Moines?
JD Vance has a near-perfect track record of using the exact word manufacturing at industrial sites, making a YES resolution highly probable despite strict string-matching rules.
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110 USD/Bbl on May 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
With Brent crude trading near $113.50 and holding a 3% buffer above the strike, a YES resolution requires only that prices avoid a massive intraday crash before the 5:00 PM deadline.
What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?
Despite the May 1 flotilla crisis, Mayor Mamdani has mentioned Israel zero times in his last nine official announcements, maintaining strict rhetorical discipline.
Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on May 4, 2026?
With the NWS forecasting a 71°F high and strong offshore winds blocking any cooling sea breeze, Boston is primed to blow past the 68°F ceiling today.
Will Emily Flippen be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 11 before May 8, 2026?
Despite being on Ozzy's hit list, Emily's 13% elimination price reflects her safety as a goat while heavyweights clash.
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 35 million views?
Apex racked up 38.2 million views in just three days, meaning it only needs to retain a fraction of its daily audience over a full seven-day week to clear the 35 million hurdle.
Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
With Mexico's economy shrinking 0.8 percent in Q1 and Governor Rodriguez Ceja explicitly signaling one final cut, a 25bps reduction on May 7 looks highly probable despite sticky headline inflation.
Will the minimum temperature be 46-47° on May 3, 2026?
With Austin sitting at 54°F and a dew point of 51°F just 80 minutes before sunrise, a 7-degree plunge to the 46-47°F target defies the laws of thermodynamics.
What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy: Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?
Sanders has used the exact word 'corrupt' in nearly every major 2026 address, and his official tour website literally headlines with 'Our Political System is Corrupt.'
Animal Farm Rotten Tomatoes score? — Above 25
With a Tomatometer score hovering between 23% and 26% and critics panning its juvenile fart jokes, Animal Farm is mathematically doomed to finish at or below the 25% threshold.
Will the high temp in LA be 65-66° on May 2, 2026?
With the NWS explicitly forecasting 68°F and calling Saturday a 'carbon copy' of Friday's 69°F+ high, this narrow 65-66°F bin is a statistical long shot.
Will Kehlani have above 50000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026?
Hits Daily Double reports Kehlani's first-week sales at 66,932 units, providing a massive 34% cushion above the 50,000 threshold.