Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will the high temp in Denver be 69-70° on Apr 13, 2026?
With the NWS forecasting 72-73°F and pre-frontal downslope winds primed to cause compressional heating, Denver is highly likely to overshoot this fragile 2-degree window.
Will the maximum temperature be <85° on Apr 13, 2026?
Despite a looming 90-degree heatwave, today's 81°F official forecast and expected afternoon cloud cover provide a robust 4-degree buffer to keep DCA below the 85°F threshold.
Will the high temp in LA be 65-66° on Apr 12, 2026?
The NWS explicitly forecasts a high of 62-63°F for LAX today as a potent cold front brings temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal, making the 65-66°F bin highly unlikely.
Will the high temp in Chicago be >81° on Apr 12, 2026? — 82° or above
With the NWS forecasting a high of 78°F and afternoon clouds rolling in, an 82°F heat spike is highly unlikely.
Will Sabrina Carpenter’s live musical performance as part of the official Coachella 2026 festival happen before Apr 14, 2026
Sabrina Carpenter already completed her 21-song headlining set on the Coachella main stage on Friday, April 10, making this market a guaranteed YES based on documented history.
Will Justin Bieber perform Baby at Justin Bieber's week 1 headlining performance at Coachella on April 11, 2026?
Justin Bieber's 34-song Coachella setlist is public record, with multiple outlets confirming 'Baby' was the 18th track, making this past-event market a near-certain YES despite minor technicality risks.
Will the maximum temperature be 57-58° on Apr 11, 2026?
With the NWS forecasting a high of just 56°F and rain suppressing afternoon heating, Seattle is highly unlikely to thread the needle into this narrow 57-58°F bin.
What will Donald Trump say during Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo?
With a fragile US-Iran ceasefire dominating headlines and a recent tense phone call with Netanyahu, Trump is virtually guaranteed to discuss the Middle East.
What will the announcers say during Tyson Fury vs Arslanbek Makhmudov?
With Mauro Ranallo leading the Netflix booth, the odds of him omitting Tyson Fury's ubiquitous 'Gypsy King' moniker across a 12-round broadcast are remarkably low.
Will Justin Bieber perform Peaches at Justin Bieber's week 1 headlining performance at Coachella on April 11, 2026?
With featured artist Giveon playing the exact same stage just four hours earlier, the logistical stars are perfectly aligned for a live collaboration of Bieber's 1.7-billion-stream hit.
What will the announcers say during Cub Swanson vs Nate Landwehr UFC Fight?
Nate Landwehr's official UFC nickname is The Train, making the target word an unavoidable part of the broadcast narrative and providing a massive edge over the 57-cent market price.
Will the maximum temperature be 55-56° on Apr 10, 2026?
Despite the NWS forecasting exactly 56 degrees, standard 1-day forecast variance means a 2-degree bin misses over 60 percent of the time.
Will any Republican member of Congress calls on Trump to be removed as President through the 25th amendment before Apr 17, 2026?
Despite Trump's April 7 threat to wipe out an entire civilization, zero sitting Republicans have joined the 70+ Democrats calling for the 25th Amendment.
40
With roughly 34 ships already through the Strait by April 9, the market only needs 7 more transits to hit 41 — an easy beat unless Iran enforces a total weekend blackout.
Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Apr 10, 2026?
With the NWS forecasting a high of 64 degrees, hitting the 70-71 degree bin requires a massive same-day forecast bust that perfectly threads a narrow two-degree needle.
Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Apr 10, 2026?
With the NWS officially forecasting 77-78F for Atlanta today, hitting the narrow 80-81F bin requires a precise 2-to-3 degree overperformance without overshooting, making the 23 percent market price an overvaluation.
What will the announcers say during Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg UFC Fight?
With 36 combined career knockouts between the fighters, Jon Anik's scripted Tale of the Tape makes a full-word mention highly probable despite the live-action preference for the 'KO' acronym.
What will any participating SNL cast say during Saturday Night Live: Weekend Update?
With Bill Gates subpoenaed and former AG Pam Bondi dodging a deposition just 72 hours before broadcast, Weekend Update has the perfect catalyst to drop the E-word this Saturday.
Will US existing home sales for March 2026 be above 3.90M?
February's 4.09 million print provides a massive 190,000-unit cushion, and with pending sales up 1.8%, the 3.90 million floor looks exceptionally safe despite late-month rate volatility.
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for March 2026 be above 325?
With EIA and AAA already reporting a historic 20-25% March price surge, the 325 threshold is mathematically cornered.