Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Feb 2026? — above 12
SpaceX needs a perfect 4-for-4 streak in the final 120 hours of February to justify the 71% price—one rain cloud in Florida could torch the bull case.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
He literally renamed the program 'Golden Dome' in March 2025 and used the exact phrase in Davos just last month—56% is a gift.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
Trump cited the '1 in 31' autism rate as a 'horrible crisis' just five months ago—now his HHS Secretary is rewriting federal policy on it.
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
George Santos isn't just free—he's Presidentially endorsed. Following his October 2025 commutation and the failure of the 'GEORGE Rule' to pass, the 70% price underestimates the victory lap of a MAGA martyr.
Will Barron Trump attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
Barron Trump skipped the 2025 Joint Session while in NYC, and new reports hint he's left D.C. again—making the 41% odds of him attending a Tuesday night speech look significantly overpriced.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
The crowd thinks 'Congo' is just a random Trump ad-lib, missing the fact that he signed a 'historic' peace deal with the country on December 4, 2025.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
Trump isn't just talking about crime; he's campaigning on the 'Memphis Model'—a federal takeover he claimed on Jan 5 cut crime by 77%.
Snow in New York City in Feb 21 - Feb 24?
The NWS just upgraded Manhattan's forecast to 18-24 inches, yet the market is pricing a coin flip—bet on the blizzard.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
The initiative dissolved in November 2025, but Trump never wastes a 'promise kept'—expect a victory lap, not silence, making 20% a steal.
Los Angeles D vs Los Angeles A Winner?
The market prices the Dodgers at 92c, ignoring the fundamental variance of baseball. No favorite is a 92% lock in a sport where the worst team beats the best weekly.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
Trump’s 2026 platform is built on blockchain, but the market only prices a 25% chance he mentions crypto at the SOTU. That’s a low-ball for a core economic pillar.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
The market prices a 51% chance Trump uses rally-stage rhetoric for his SOTU. Teleprompters usually kill the freestyle, making our 35% estimate the more likely outcome.
Snow in New York City from Feb 21 - Feb 24?
A 60% probability for 15 inches of snow is a 1-in-50 year outlier. The market is treating a freak storm like a certainty, ignoring the 35% historical reality.
Will Cloud 9 have At Least 60000 album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for February 27, 2026?
A 5-cent gap is all that separates the 55K and 60K sales tiers for Cloud 9. That implies a conditional probability that math just can't justify at 60c.
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
72% odds for an independent influencer to attend the SOTU is an extreme overestimation. Protocol usually reserves those seats for guests who aren't just there for the vlog.
Will Ketanji Brown Jackson attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
80% of Supreme Court Justices attend the SOTU historically, yet KBJ is priced at 34c. History suggests this is a massive miscalculation of judicial protocol.
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks on the Economy?
Trump's signature 'Drill Baby Drill' slogan sits at a 19% discount for his economic remarks. History suggests this catchphrase is a staple, not a longshot.
What will the announcers say during Boston vs Golden State Professional Basketball Game?
Celtics-Warriors features the highest volume shooters in the league, yet an 'Airball' mention sits at 58c. The math favors the miss.
Will Barron Trump attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
Barron Trump is only 33% likely to show up in the executive gallery. Immediate family members are usually a 100% lock for the SOTU.
What will Robin Kelly or Raja Krishnamoorthi or Juliana Stratton say during Illinois U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Debate originally scheduled for February 19th?
The Illinois Senate debate is priced at 67c for core local topics. Ticker confusion might be masking a 90% statistical lock.