Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will the minimum temperature be 56-57° on Apr 17, 2026?
With LAX already sitting at 56°F at 3:40 AM, any further cooling over the next three hours will push the daily minimum below the narrow target range, invalidating the YES side.
Will the high temp in Miami be 86-87° on Apr 17, 2026? — 86° to 87°
With a persistent easterly sea breeze and an official NWS forecast of 83°F, an 86°F print requires a massive same-day forecast bust.
Will the minimum temperature be <59° on Apr 17, 2026?
Oklahoma City is currently 69°F, but the NWS is calling for a 46°F low tonight as a massive cold front arrives. With an 82% historical hit rate, the evening crash makes sub-59°F nearly certain.
Will the high temp in NYC be <77° on Apr 17, 2026? — 76° or below
Central Park already recorded 77.0°F at 1:00 AM EDT, effectively locking in a daily high that guarantees a NO resolution before sunrise.
Will Dandelion have at least 60,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dandelion?
Despite a massive 160,000 total unit projection, prediction markets price Ella Langley's chances of hitting just 50,000 pure sales at a dismal 3%.
Will the minimum temperature be 56-57° on Apr 16, 2026?
Real-time observations at LAX already hit 55 degrees by 3:51 AM, effectively busting the 56-degree floor before sunrise.
What will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. say during Full Committee Hearing with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.?
Despite White House efforts to scrub 'vaccine' from his prepared remarks, RFK Jr. faces a multi-hour Democratic grilling over a recent court defeat that makes mentioning his signature topic nearly inevitable.
Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 16, 2026?
The NWS slashed Boston's point forecast to 55°F this morning, providing a massive 8-degree buffer below the market's 63°F threshold.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >89.99 on Apr 15, 2026? — 90.0 or above
With WTI crude plunging nearly $8 yesterday and testing an $87.08 low, the market's 80% confidence in a $90+ settle ignores the extreme downside volatility driven by emerging peace talks.
Will the high temp in Austin be 87-88° on Apr 15, 2026? — 87° to 88°
The NWS point forecast sits at 84 degrees—a full 3 degrees below the target range—as incoming clouds and storm chances cap afternoon heating.
Will the maximum temperature be 94-95° on Apr 15, 2026?
Priced at just 10%, the market is overconfident in conservative NWS guidance, ignoring explicit 94°F forecasts from AccuWeather and a historically warm morning baseline.
Will the minimum temperature be >55° on Apr 15, 2026?
With Los Angeles already recording 55°F at 3:23 AM and an official NWS forecast of 53°F, the window for a >55°F daily minimum has effectively slammed shut.
What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 8?
With Coach Wade leading the Four Horsemen alliance into a pairs twist, the 68% probability of a loyalty mention reflects the season's heavy thematic focus on old-school values.
Will the maximum temperature be 76-77° on Apr 14, 2026?
With official NWS forecasts split between a 74°F point prediction and an 80°F warming trend, this narrow 2-degree bin faces massive two-sided risk that makes a hit highly unlikely.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >102.99 on Apr 15, 2026? — 103.0 or above
WTI has collapsed to $97 on renewed peace talk hopes, meaning a surge to $103 by tomorrow requires a statistically rare 6% rally that emerging demand destruction likely forbids.
Will the minimum temperature be >53° on Apr 14, 2026?
With live observations already touching 53°F before dawn and clear skies maximizing radiational cooling, the >53°F threshold is highly likely to fail.
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 8?
Despite the iconic catchphrase, Jeff Probst only recites his 'fire represents your life' script during a player's first Tribal Council, leaving mid-season episodes reliant on unscripted metaphors.
Will the high temp in NYC be 85-86° on Apr 14, 2026? — 85° to 86°
With official NWS point forecasts capping today's high at 83°F, threading the needle into a narrow 2-degree bin requires a highly specific overperformance that the 39-cent market price vastly overstates.
Will Chrissy Hofbeck be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 8 before Apr 18, 2026?
While spoilers strongly link Chrissy to the doomed Coach Wade, an 88-cent price tag ignores her elite challenge pedigree and an 11-cent market gap suggesting a twist technicality.
Will the high temp in Chicago be 78-79° on Apr 13, 2026? — 78° to 79°
With the official NWS forecast at 77 degrees and yesterday's high hitting 81 degrees, this narrow 2-degree bin is squeezed between high-probability undershoot and overshoot risks.