Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for March 2026 be above 325?

Official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirms a massive price spike that easily clears the 325 threshold. National average prices for regular gasoline rose from $3.01 on March 2 to $3.99 by March 30, yielding a simple monthly average of roughly $3.64. The EIA all-grades average for March hit $3.77, well above the 325 mark. AAA daily tracking data corroborates this historic surge, reporting a $1.00 jump in the national average between February 26 and March 26. This move was driven by the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February, which sent WTI crude prices toward $90 per barrel. Because the BLS Gasoline (All Types) series includes mid-grade and premium fuels, the composite average will be structurally higher than regular-grade averages. Even if the market resolves based on the Gasoline CPI index rather than the nominal price, the math holds. Starting from a February index level in the 263-276 range, a 20-25% increase in underlying pump prices pushes the index comfortably past 325. The sustained high prices in the final three weeks of March heavily outweigh the lower prices seen in the first week.

The primary risk to a YES outcome is the ambiguity of the 325 threshold if it refers to the seasonally adjusted CPI index rather than the average price in cents. Seasonal adjustment factors for March typically expect a rise in prices as refineries transition to summer-blend gasoline. If the BLS applies an unusually aggressive seasonal filter, the final adjusted print could theoretically land below 325. Historical volatility in the Gasoline (All Types) index shows that while it tracks retail prices, it does not always move in a 1:1 ratio due to geographic weighting and station sampling. If the price spike was concentrated in rural or non-urban regions not heavily weighted in the U.S. City Average, the BLS print could come in lower than the figures reported by other agencies. Finally, the White House announced a massive release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) on March 19. While this action came too late to reverse the early-month spikes, it could have dampened the final week's price growth in urban centers more than current retail estimates suggest.