40

Accumulated traffic provides a massive head start. Data from Caliber.Az and CBS News indicates approximately 34 ships have already transited in the first four days of the period (April 6-9). With the threshold at 40, only 7 more transits are required over the final three days (April 10-12), an average of just 2.3 per day. The baseline blockade traffic is sufficient. Even during the tightest period of Iran's selective blockade in March, CBS News reported an average of 6 crossings per day (42 per week). In April, Windward and CBS News report the average has risen to 10 per day. Maintaining even the lowest historical blockade average guarantees a YES resolution. IMF PortWatch's methodology structurally favors higher counts. The resolution source relies on automated geofencing, which traders have observed double-counting vessels drifting at anchor near Fujairah due to kinetic threats. This algorithmic hallucination resulted in a reported 41 transits for the week of March 9-15, despite physical crossings being lower. This measurement bias provides a strong margin of safety.

Iran could enforce a total, zero-transit blockade. On April 8, an Iranian military-linked news agency threatened to suspend all traffic in response to Israel's attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Iran follows through and completely seals the Strait for the final three days of the period, the count could stall at the current ~34, resulting in a NO. The ceasefire could collapse entirely. The two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 is highly fragile. If hostilities resume and kinetic strikes target vessels in the Strait (similar to the March 31 missile strike off Qatar), even risk-tolerant dark fleet operators might refuse to transit, dropping the daily count to zero. IMF PortWatch could correct its algorithm. If the IMF updates its PortWatch methodology to filter out drifting vessels at Fujairah, the reported numbers could suddenly drop to match the true physical crossings. If the true physical count is closer to 3 per day, the final three days might only add 9 transits, leaving the total dangerously close to the 40 threshold.