Will US existing home sales for March 2026 be above 3.90M?

The strongest argument for a print above 3.90 million is the sheer mathematical buffer provided by February's data. Existing home sales hit 4.09 million SAAR in February, meaning March would need to suffer a nearly 5% month-over-month collapse to breach the threshold. This is highly unlikely given that pending home sales—the most reliable leading indicator for closings 30 to 60 days out—rose 1.8% in February. Early local market data confirms this momentum is holding. According to CalculatedRisk's April 7 report, early-reporting markets show a 2.4% year-over-year increase in non-seasonally adjusted sales volume for March. Zillow's preliminary March nowcast corroborates this, showing closed sales up 3.7% year-over-year. Finally, the macroeconomic conditions during the core contract-signing period were highly favorable. Contracts signed in January and February, which constitute the bulk of March closings, benefited from mortgage rates averaging near 6.05%—their lowest levels since mid-2022. This locked in a strong pipeline of buyers before late-March volatility hit.

The primary threat to a >3.90 million print is the calendar effect. March 2026 has 22 working days compared to 21 in March 2025. Because the SAAR calculation adjusts for the number of business days, this 4.7% increase in available days acts as a mathematical drag on the headline number. If raw sales growth fails to offset this penalty, the seasonally adjusted figure could be suppressed. Additionally, a sudden spike in mortgage rates in late March presents a tail risk for late-month closings. Driven by geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices, 30-year fixed rates climbed to 6.45% by late March. This rapid shift in affordability could have triggered a wave of contract cancellations or delayed closings for deals scheduled in the final week of the month. Finally, Trading Economics' econometric models project a notable drop in activity, forecasting 3.80 million for the end of the first quarter. If their models are correctly capturing a broader macroeconomic slowdown or a delayed reaction to the severe 9.3% drop in pending sales seen back in December 2025, the print could surprise to the downside.