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Will Justin Bieber perform Peaches at Justin Bieber's week 1 headlining performance at Coachella on April 11, 2026?

The Setup

Justin Bieber headlines Coachella tonight in his first major festival appearance since 2022. The market is heavily discounting the likelihood of him playing his 2021 smash hit 'Peaches' due to recent 'new-music-only' warm-up shows and soundcheck omissions, creating a massive pricing discrepancy.

With featured artist Giveon playing the exact same stage just four hours earlier, the logistical stars are perfectly aligned for a live collaboration of Bieber's 1.7-billion-stream hit.

Market
31c
Our Estimate
55-80c
Edge
+37c

Bull Case

The strongest indicator for a 'Peaches' performance is the festival schedule itself. Featured artist Giveon is slated to perform on the main Coachella Stage at 7:00 PM tonight, just hours before Bieber's 11:25 PM headlining slot. Coachella sets are historically defined by surprise guest appearances, and having the collaborator already on-site and assigned to the same stage creates a near-perfect logistical setup for a joint performance. Furthermore, the narrative that Bieber will exclusively play tracks from his new 'SWAG' albums is contradicted by on-the-ground evidence. While his recent Roxy warm-up show featured only new material, leaked soundchecks from the Coachella grounds confirm he has been rehearsing legacy hits like 'Baby' and 'Sorry.' This proves the 95-minute set will be career-spanning, leaving ample room for his defining 2021 hit. Finally, Bieber is reportedly the highest-paid headliner in Coachella history, commanding a $10 million fee. Festival promoters Goldenvoice expect crowd-pleasing spectacles for that price tag. Omitting a Billboard Hot 100 number-one hit that literally references California would be a massive unforced error for a comeback performance of this magnitude.

Bear Case

The primary risk to a YES outcome is the specific omission of 'Peaches' from audible soundcheck recordings. Local residents and fans captured rehearsals of 'Baby,' 'Sorry,' and new tracks between April 8 and April 10, but 'Peaches' was notably absent. If Bieber is curating a specific nostalgia set to contrast with his new material, the intermediate 'Justice' era could be sidelined. Additionally, Bieber's recent creative direction has leaned heavily into a minimalist, experimental aesthetic. His February 2026 Grammy performance featured him solo with a looper pedal, eschewing high-production pop. If he maintains this stripped-down style for his Coachella comeback, the multi-layered, collaborative nature of 'Peaches' might not fit the show's artistic vision. There is also a financial incentive for Bieber to prioritize new music. Following the $200 million sale of his catalog to Hipgnosis in 2023, Bieber no longer owns the rights to his older hits. He may view this massive platform primarily as a vehicle to drive streams for his newly released, independently controlled 'SWAG' albums.

What Could Go Wrong

IF Bieber adheres to a strict artistic vision that only includes his new 'SWAG' material and pre-2015 acoustic throwbacks, THEN the 2021 hit 'Peaches' will be excluded from the setlist. IF Giveon departs the festival grounds immediately after his 7:00 PM set and Bieber refuses to perform the track without his featured guest, THEN the logistical advantage disappears and the song could be cut.

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