Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
70
Despite a brief ceasefire, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz crashed to just two tankers on April 8, making the 70-transit threshold a nearly impossible climb.
Will the gold close price be above $4676.99 on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
With gold's buffer at just 1% and daily swings exceeding $100, the 70% market price ignores the massive downside risk of Friday's CPI print.
Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 40.4% for Apr 9, 2026?
VoteHub explicitly reported Trump's approval at 'about 40%' on April 8, signaling a near-certain NO resolution as recent polls drag the average down.
Will the minimum temperature be <46° on Apr 9, 2026?
Despite a forecast overnight low of 43°F, hourly projections show Chicago holding above 60°F at 11 PM, making a pre-midnight crash below 46°F highly improbable.
What will Bernie Sanders say during Union Now: Building the Labor Movement with Bernie Sanders and Sara Nelson?
With Sanders actively linking the $200 billion Iran war funding request to domestic labor struggles, he is highly likely to bring his anti-war message to the New York City stage.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >85.99 on Apr 9, 2026? — 86.0 or above
WTI crude would need a historically rare second consecutive 10% daily crash to breach the $85.99 threshold.
Will the high temp in Austin be 82-83° on Apr 8, 2026? — 82° to 83°
Polymarket traders are pricing the 82-83°F bin at a mere 4%, heavily favoring a high of 81°F or lower as morning clouds threaten to cap Austin's diurnal heating.
What will Pete Hegseth say during Pentagon Press Briefing originally scheduled for April 8th?
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has used the exact phrase America First in at least four of his recent Pentagon briefings, making it a staple of his wartime rhetoric.
Will the maximum temperature be >72° on Apr 8, 2026?
A stubborn cold air wedge has trapped Atlanta in the 60s today, with the NWS forecasting a high of just 68 degrees—making a >72 degree outcome a massive longshot.
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in March 2026?
Despite a historic 35% surge in gasoline prices, hitting the 3.6% threshold requires a massive 1.2% monthly print—a mathematical hurdle that sits far above the Cleveland Fed's 3.25% nowcast.
What will any NASA Participant say during Daily news conference on Artemis II (April 7, 2026)?
After the Artemis II crew emotionally dedicated a lunar crater to Commander Wiseman's late wife yesterday, the word is a near-certainty for today's briefing.
What will Pete Hegseth say during Pentagon Press Briefing on April 7th?
The scheduled 8:00 a.m. Pentagon press briefing has been abruptly cancelled, dropping the probability of any mentions to near zero.
Will the maximum temperature be 52-53° on Apr 7, 2026?
With a midnight temperature already recorded at 55°F, a daily high of 52-53°F is mathematically impossible under standard NWS reporting rules, making NO a near-certainty.
Will the maximum temperature be <46° on Apr 7, 2026?
With the NWS forecasting a high of just 41F for Boston today, a persistent cold pool and coastal sea breeze provide a comfortable 5-degree margin of safety for YES bettors.
50
Commercial trackers show a weekend surge of 21 transits, but the IMF's strict filtering historically undercounts these raw figures by 30-50%, making the 50-transit threshold highly improbable.
What will Donald Trump say during News Conference?
During his 20-minute prime-time address on the Iran war last week, Trump did not mention Biden once. Expect that disciplined silence to continue today.
Will the maximum temperature be 86-87° on Apr 6, 2026?
With the National Weather Service and high-resolution models clustering around an 89-90°F high, Phoenix is heavily favored to overshoot the narrow 86-87°F target window.
Will the maximum temperature be 76-77° on Apr 6, 2026?
With same-day models clustered at 73-75°F and clouds slow to break, reaching the 76-77°F target requires an unlikely 2-degree overperformance.
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 7?
Don't get burned by false memories—Jeff Probst only delivers his iconic 'fire represents your life' speech during torch-lighting ceremonies, which already concluded in Episode 6.
What will Sean Hannity say during Fox News: Hannity?
President Trump's 8:00 PM Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires exactly one hour before Hannity goes live.