70

The math simply does not support reaching 70 transits. As the skeptical risk manager notes, Windward maritime intelligence reported exactly 11 transits on April 6. To reach 70, the strait would need to average 10 transits per day for the entire week, which leaves zero margin for error now that traffic has slowed. The provisional ceasefire collapsed almost immediately. On April 8, the contrarian analyst highlights that Iranian news agency Fars confirmed tankers were stopped and the strait was effectively closed again following Israeli attacks on Lebanon. With tankers historically making up 50-60% of Strait traffic, their exclusion removes the bulk of potential transits. Geopolitical risk remains at an extreme level, deterring commercial operators even if selective passage is offered. The calibration forecaster points out that major shipowners like Tufton publicly stated they would not change their diversion orders based on a two-week ceasefire, ensuring the back half of the week will likely average fewer than 5 transits per day.

The bear case relies on the strong start to the week and the continuation of non-tanker traffic. Prior to the April 8 tanker halt, traffic had shown signs of recovery, with the contrarian analyst noting Iranian media claimed 15 ships were allowed to pass in a single 24-hour period on April 6. The April 8 halt specifically targeted tanker traffic. Bulk carriers and other non-tanker vessels may still be permitted to transit through the IRGC-controlled northern corridor, potentially sustaining a daily count of 6-8 vessels if Iran wants to maintain some toll revenue. IMF PortWatch relies on AIS data and automated geofencing, which can be unreliable in conflict zones. The skeptical risk manager warns that the system previously double-counted ships drifting at anchor near Fujairah due to kinetic threats, reporting 41 transits when physical verification showed approximately 21. If this algorithmic hallucination repeats, the reported number could artificially inflate past 70.