Will average gas prices be above $3.590?

The primary driver for a YES resolution is the mechanical lag between wholesale and retail gasoline prices. As of March 11, 2026, the AAA national average stands at $3.578, requiring only a 1.3-cent increase to cross the $3.590 threshold. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group published by Xinhua on March 11, RBOB gasoline futures are trading at $2.65. When adding the standard $1.00 spread to account for federal/state taxes (averaging 57 cents) and distribution/retail margins, the implied equilibrium retail price is $3.65. This indicates that despite recent crude volatility, retail prices are still fundamentally underpriced and have roughly 7 cents of upward runway. Furthermore, the historical "rockets and feathers" asymmetry in retail gas pricing strongly insulates the AAA average from immediate downside. Station owners who purchased wholesale fuel during the Monday peak (when Brent crude hit $119.50) will hold retail prices high through the weekend to protect their margins on that expensive inventory. This inventory turnover delay ensures the AAA average will likely continue rising through Friday, peaking well above $3.590. Finally, physical supply constraints remain a structural tailwind. According to Trading Economics on March 11, the Strait of Hormuz remains "effectively shut," keeping approximately 6 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern output offline. This physical bottleneck provides a hard floor for wholesale prices, preventing the kind of rapid RBOB collapse that would be required to drag the retail average below $3.590 by Monday.

The most significant threat to a YES resolution is the violent reversal in crude oil markets. On March 10, 2026, WTI crude experienced its largest daily drop since 2022, plunging 11.9% to $83.45 per barrel following statements that the US-Iran conflict may end soon, according to Upstox and Trading Economics. If wholesale prices continue to freefall, the equilibrium retail price will drop rapidly, incentivizing high-volume retailers to cut prices before the weekend. The daily rate of increase in the AAA average is already showing signs of sharp deceleration. According to AAA data, the national average jumped 5.9 cents on Tuesday (March 10) but only 3.9 cents on Wednesday (March 11). If this deceleration continues linearly (+1.9 cents on Thursday, +0.0 cents on Friday), the price will peak exactly around $3.597 and then begin falling over the weekend, potentially slipping back below the $3.590 threshold by the Monday morning resolution. Additionally, unprecedented market intervention is imminent. On March 11, the Wall Street Journal and TradingKey reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the largest emergency reserve release in history, exceeding the 182 million barrels deployed in 2022. This historic flood of supply could shock the wholesale market by Thursday, prompting competitive discount stations (like Costco and Sam's Club) to slash prices immediately to drive foot traffic, dragging the national average down faster than the historical "feathers" rate.