Will the minimum temperature be >40° on Mar 10, 2026?

The status quo strongly favors a YES resolution because the morning low was already established at 45 degrees Fahrenheit at 2:27 AM MDT, according to the 6:00 AM NWS Climatological Report for Denver. For the market to resolve NO, the temperature must drop more than 5 degrees from its morning low before midnight. There is a possibility that gusty west winds mix down to the surface at KDEN late this afternoon. The NWS noted that while KDEN was stuck at 47 degrees at 12:38 PM, nearby KAPA had reached 64 degrees due to these southwest winds. If KDEN experiences this mixing, temperatures could spike into the 60s, providing a much larger buffer against the evening cold front. The timing of the evening cold front could also be delayed. The NWS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast predicts the front will pass between 8:00 PM and 10:00 PM MDT. If the front arrives at the later end of this window, there may simply not be enough time for the temperature to drop below the 41-degree threshold before the midnight calendar cutoff.

The primary catalyst for a NO resolution is the strong cold front expected to sweep through Denver this evening. The NWS forecasts northeast winds gusting to 35 knots behind this front, which will bring rapid cold air advection. The overnight low is forecast to reach 32 degrees, meaning the temperature is guaranteed to cross the 40-degree threshold at some point tonight. Crucially, KDEN is starting the evening much colder than models initially predicted. The 12:38 PM MDT NWS Area Forecast Discussion noted that a shallow cold boundary kept KDEN at 47 degrees, while models had forecast temperatures in the upper 60s. Because KDEN is entering the evening with a suppressed temperature, the cold front has a much shorter distance to drive the temperature down below 41 degrees. With the front expected between 8:00 PM and 10:00 PM MDT, there are 2 to 4 hours of rapid cooling before the midnight cutoff. A drop from 50 degrees to 40 degrees in 3 hours is highly typical for a Front Range cold frontal passage with 35-knot gusts, making a sub-41 degree reading before 11:59 PM highly probable.