Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in February?

The bull case for a >0.1% print is overwhelming, anchored by the mathematical weight of shelter costs. Shelter constitutes roughly 40% of the Core CPI basket. In recent months, shelter inflation has consistently printed between 0.3% and 0.4% month-over-month. Even if shelter comes in at the low end of 0.3%, it contributes 0.12 percentage points to the headline Core CPI number. This means the rest of the core basket would have to experience outright deflation to drag the total index down to 0.1% or lower. Furthermore, the primary candidate for a deflationary drag—used vehicles—is flashing positive. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for February 2026 rose 0.8% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, and 3.0% non-adjusted, according to Cox Automotive data released on March 6, 2026. In January, used car prices were a drag, yet Core CPI still printed 0.3%. With wholesale used car prices stabilizing and rising, a major downside risk to the retail core index has been neutralized. Finally, consensus estimates from major financial institutions uniformly project a print well above the 0.1% threshold. FactSet, Morningstar, and FXStreet all report median economist forecasts of 0.2% or 0.3% for February 2026 Core CPI. A miss of 0.15 to 0.20 percentage points below consensus is a rare tail event, typically requiring a massive exogenous shock or a severe methodological revision by the BLS, neither of which is present in the current data environment.

To steel-man the bear case, we must look for scenarios where multiple core components simultaneously collapse. The most plausible path to a 0.1% print involves a sudden, sharp deceleration in core services ex-shelter (supercore), combined with a delayed pass-through of earlier wholesale goods deflation. If airline fares, hotel rates, and medical services all print negative in February—perhaps due to seasonal adjustment quirks or a sudden drop in consumer demand—they could offset the sticky shelter components. Additionally, the BLS seasonal adjustment factors, which were updated in early 2026, could introduce unexpected downward pressure. In January 2026, the BLS noted that relative importance values were updated and seasonal factors recalculated. If these new factors heavily penalize February price increases in categories like apparel or household furnishings, the seasonally adjusted Core CPI could artificially dip. Finally, while the Manheim index rose in February, wholesale price changes can take 1-2 months to pass through to retail CPI. If the retail used car market experienced a delayed reaction to late-2025 wholesale price drops, the CPI used cars and trucks component could still print deeply negative in February, dragging the overall core index down closer to the 0.1% threshold.