← Back to Past Picks
LOST mentions
What will Bernie Sanders say during LIVE: Get Out The Vote in Illinois?
The Setup
The market asks whether Bernie Sanders will say the exact phrase Middle Class during his March 10 livestream mobilizing Illinois voters. While middle class was once the defining buzzword of Sanders' political brand, he has recently undergone a conscious rhetorical shift toward working class. This market tests whether traders are pricing in his updated 2025-2026 vocabulary or relying on outdated assumptions from his 2020 presidential run.
Bernie Sanders explicitly disavowed the term middle class in August 2025, stating that the middle class is comfortable while his base is the working class.
Market
37c
Our Estimate
35-55c
Edge
+8c
Bull Case
Bernie Sanders still relies on the term Middle Class when discussing the historical decline of the American economy, which is a staple of his stump speeches. In his February 5, 2026, op-ed published in The Guardian and on his Senate website, Sanders wrote, We used to have the strongest and most vibrant middle class on Earth. Not any more. This historical framing is a consistent feature of his prepared remarks, even as his broader vocabulary evolves.
In unscripted or semi-scripted moments, Sanders continues to link the working and middle classes when criticizing corporate elites. During a February 11, 2026, interview on MS NOW responding to Donald Trump's economic claims, Sanders asked, Do you think they're worried about the implications of that for working people, the middle class? I don't think so. This demonstrates the phrase remains active in his working vocabulary.
The event is a Get Out The Vote rally for the March 17 Illinois primary. To build a broad coalition and mobilize a wide swath of voters, politicians typically revert to inclusive economic populism. During a November 15, 2023, Senate HELP committee hearing, Sanders explicitly stated, We have got to expand union organizing in this country if we're going to save the middle class. In a broad mobilization context, he is likely to cast the widest possible rhetorical net.
Bear Case
Sanders has made a conscious, explicitly stated ideological shift away from the term Middle Class in favor of Working Class. In an August 26, 2025, interview with John Nichols in Interview Magazine, when asked why he prefers working class, Sanders replied: I think if you're middle class in America today, you're comfortable. You're not stressed out... So I think it's important to make the distinction between the middle class and the working class. This is a definitive disavowal of the term as a descriptor for his core base.
In his recent Fighting Oligarchy tour speeches, transcripts show he heavily indexes on working class and working families, often omitting middle class entirely. For example, in his March 5, 2025, response to President Trump's address, Sanders repeatedly referenced the working class, stating, Being poor or working class in this country today is a death sentence, without using middle class once to describe his supporters.
Livestreams are often shorter and more focused than full arena rallies. According to Kalshi's market description, this is a targeted livestream focused on mobilizing voters in Illinois. If Sanders only speaks for 10 to 15 minutes, he will likely stick to his primary identifier (working class) rather than taking the time to explain the historical decline of the middle class, reducing the surface area for a mention.
What Could Go Wrong
IF Sanders reads a slightly older version of his standard stump speech from a teleprompter, THEN Middle Class will likely be included, as it was a mandatory staple of his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
IF he specifically attacks Republican tax policies during the livestream, THEN he frequently uses the phrase tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the middle class, which would trigger a YES resolution.
Get picks like this daily
Full analysis delivered to your inbox every morning at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Start Free Trial