Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)?
Starmer explicitly named President Trump in both the March 4 PMQs and a March 16 press conference, breaking his historical avoidance pattern and making the 48-cent market price a clear underreaction.
Reminders of Him Rotten Tomatoes score? — Above 55
Despite a 7-point slide since its Friday debut, Reminders of Him holds a 56% critic score just 90 minutes before resolution, leaving the film with a razor-thin one-point lead over the threshold.
Will the maximum temperature be >83° on Mar 16, 2026?
Media headlines scream '84 degrees in San Francisco,' but they're talking about the Mission District — the official NWS forecast for the SFO resolution station is only 81°F.
How many awards will One Battle After Another win at the Oscars?
Despite 11 nominations, One Battle After Another's loss at the SAG Awards on February 28 suggests it lacks the broad support for a sweep, making exactly 4 wins a 28% statistical probability.
How many awards will Hamnet win at the Oscars?
While Jessie Buckley's precursor sweep establishes a strong floor, pricing an eight-leg parlay of one win and seven losses at 90c ignores the very real threat of a second craft trophy.
Will Powell say Probability at his Mar 2026 press conference?
Powell explicitly told reporters in September 2025 to view the Fed's projections 'through the lens of probability,' making the crowd's 42% price a severe underestimation of his SEP meeting habits.
Will legislation providing full-year FY2026 discretionary appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security (including via continuing resolution) become law before Apr 1, 2026?
With ICE and CBP insulated by $150 billion in unspent reconciliation funds and the Senate deadlocked, a full-year DHS funding deal before April 1 is highly improbable.
Men's March Madness Round of 64 Qualifiers
Missouri's toxic NET ranking of 58 makes a trip to the First Four highly probable, effectively halving their chances of reaching the Round of 64 to a coin flip.
Venezuela vs Japan Winner?
Despite crossing 13 time zones, Japan's undefeated WBC quarterfinal pedigree and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's arm make them a solid bet at 62c.
West Ham vs Manchester City Winner?
Manchester City has won 17 of their last 20 league matches against West Ham, and the Hammers are missing their top scorer.
Will DHS funding bill become law before Apr 1, 2026?
With TSA absences doubling and agents missing their first full paycheck this week, the impending collapse of Spring Break air travel will likely force a short-term funding compromise before April 1.
Men's March Madness Round of 64 Qualifiers
Retail bettors are ignoring the First Four trap; Miami's zero Quad 1 wins make a play-in game highly likely, effectively halving their chances of reaching the Round of 64.
Will Shohei Ohtani win World Baseball Classic MVP — :: Japan
With Japan's tournament win probability hovering around 23 percent, Ohtani's 20 percent MVP price mathematically ignores the risk of his restricted pitching role and internal team competition.
Will Powell say Dot Plot at his Mar 2026 press conference?
Despite the dot plot starring in the March FOMC meeting, Powell has uttered the phrase in just 4 of his last 20 SEP press conferences, preferring the official SEP moniker 80% of the time.
Will the high temp in NYC be <45° on Mar 13, 2026? — 44° or below
While Weather.com shows a chilly 43°F high for NYC today, the National Weather Service's official 48°F forecast and developing south winds suggest the market is severely underpricing a warm afternoon.
How many awards will Sentimental Value win at the Oscars?
Despite fears of a 9-nomination shutout, Sentimental Value holds a massive trump card: a Best Director nomination that historically guarantees a win in the Best International Feature category.
Will the maximum temperature be 43-44° on Mar 13, 2026?
Minneapolis already hit 45°F at 12:53 AM today before a cold front swept through, effectively locking in a daily high above the 44°F market ceiling before most traders even woke up.
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in February?
With consensus forecasts at 0.3% and the Manheim used car index rising 0.8% in February, a Core CPI print of 0.1% or lower would require a statistical miracle.
Will the high temp in LA be 72-73° on Mar 11, 2026?
With the official NWS forecast sitting at 71°F and alternative models projecting just 67°F, betting on a narrow 72-73°F overshoot ignores the stubborn reality of LAX's marine layer.
Canada vs Cuba Winner?
Prediction markets price Canada at 60%, but traditional sportsbooks list Cuba as a -162 favorite—a massive 19-point divergence driven by a severe pitching mismatch and a brutal scheduling turnaround for the Canadians.