How many awards will Sentimental Value win at the Oscars?

The 'Banshees of Inisherin' trajectory provides a strong historical precedent for a shutout. Films with 9 or more nominations, including Picture, Director, Screenplay, and multiple acting nods, frequently go home empty-handed if they aren't the Best Picture frontrunner. 'The Banshees of Inisherin' (9 nominations), 'The Irishman' (10 nominations), and 'Killers of the Flower Moon' (10 nominations) all won zero awards. 'Sentimental Value' faces two massive juggernauts in 'Sinners' (16 nominations) and 'One Battle After Another' (13 nominations) that are poised to sweep the major categories, leaving the Norwegian film highly vulnerable to a shutout. The Secret Agent's momentum in International Feature is the primary catalyst for a potential shutout. While 'Sentimental Value' is the betting favorite, Brazil's 'The Secret Agent' is a formidable spoiler. It won the Golden Globe for Best Foreign Language Film and also secured a Best Picture nomination. Pundits at the Washington Post (March 6), AV Club (March 10), and Shortlist (March 12) have all predicted 'The Secret Agent' to pull off the upset, citing its timely political themes and the Academy's growing international voting bloc. Shut out in other categories is highly likely. Stellan Skarsgard won the Golden Globe for Supporting Actor, but lost the BAFTA and SAG to Sean Penn and Delroy Lindo, killing his momentum. The Original Screenplay race is heavily favored for Ryan Coogler ('Sinners', 97% on Kalshi as of March 11). With the acting and writing categories locked up by other films, 'Sentimental Value's' entire fate rests on International Feature. If it loses that single category, a shutout is almost guaranteed.

The Director Branch signal strongly protects 'Sentimental Value' from a shutout. The film secured a Best Director nomination for Joachim Trier, while 'The Secret Agent's' Kleber Mendonca Filho missed the cut. In Oscar history, when two non-English films face off in International Feature and only one has a Director nomination, the director-nominated film wins over 90% of the time (e.g., 'The Zone of Interest' over 'Society of the Snow', 'Drive My Car', 'Parasite'). The Directors branch is the Academy's most elite; their endorsement is a massive leading indicator for overall Academy support. The BAFTA win and nomination volume demonstrate overwhelming broad support. 'Sentimental Value' won the BAFTA for Best Film Not in the English Language, a voting body with significant overlap with the Academy. Furthermore, it earned 9 total Oscar nominations compared to 'The Secret Agent's' 4. Crucially, 'Sentimental Value' received four acting nominations, demonstrating widespread, passionate support from the Actors branch, the Academy's largest voting bloc. The Academy rarely lets a film with this much broad branch support go home completely empty-handed when there is a dedicated category to reward it. Polymarket and betting consensus heavily favor 'Sentimental Value' to win Best International Feature. Polymarket prices it at 71% as of March 11, compared to just 21% for 'The Secret Agent'. Because the International Feature category acts as a dedicated safety net for acclaimed non-English films, 'Sentimental Value' has a much higher floor than English-language films like 'Banshees of Inisherin' that must compete in the general categories to avoid a shutout.