Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will average gas prices be above $3.590?
With wholesale RBOB gasoline at $2.65, the math dictates a retail equilibrium of $3.65. The pump is still catching up to the pipeline, giving the AAA average ample runway to cross $3.590.
Will the maximum temperature be >56° on Mar 11, 2026?
Consumer apps are screaming 61 degrees for Boston today, but the National Weather Service's official airport forecast is a chilly 48 degrees. Here is why the marine layer makes NO the smart play.
Will Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally. have At least 300000 album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for Mar 13, 2026?
Harry's House moved a massive 330,000 pure copies in 2022, but mid-week forecasts for his new album project just '250K+ pure' sales, making the 300,000 threshold a steep climb.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >97.99 on Mar 13, 2026? — 98.0 or above
WTI crude plummeted 11.9 percent to 83.45 dollars on March 10 after the G7 threatened to unleash 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, making a 17 percent rebound by Friday highly improbable.
What will Bernie Sanders say during LIVE: Get Out The Vote in Illinois?
Bernie Sanders explicitly disavowed the term middle class in August 2025, stating that the middle class is comfortable while his base is the working class.
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 3?
With Episode 3 titled Did You Vote for a Swap?, the market's 29 percent price drastically underestimates how often Jeff Probst uses the word trust to interrogate fractured alliances at Tribal Council.
Will the high temp in LA be 67-68° on Mar 10, 2026?
With the NWS forecasting a high of 65°F and Robinhood traders pricing the median around 65-66°F, the 67-68°F bin is a significant overshoot for LAX's marine-cooled microclimate.
Will the minimum temperature be >40° on Mar 10, 2026?
Denver's morning low was a safe 45 degrees, but a shallow cold front has kept afternoon temperatures stuck at 47 degrees—setting the stage for a rapid plunge below 40 degrees tonight.
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the March Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?
ASX cash rate futures are pricing a 78 percent probability that the RBA holds rates in March, making the prediction market's 52 percent price a massive dislocation from institutional money.
Will Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate race before Mar 13, 2026?
Despite Trump's demand that the unendorsed candidate drop out, Ken Paxton holds a 51% to 40% runoff polling advantage over John Cornyn, making the 12% market price for a sudden exit highly inflated.
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in January 2026?
While a hot PPI report has traders spooked, Core CPI printed at just 0.28 percent in January—making a 0.5 percent Core PCE print mathematically daunting and leaving the YES side significantly overpriced at 33 percent.
Will the high temp in Miami be 84-85° on Mar 9, 2026? — 84° to 85°
The National Weather Service is forecasting exactly 85 degrees for Miami today, but history shows that betting on a narrow 2-degree temperature bin is a coin flip at best.
Will the minimum temperature be >48° on Mar 9, 2026?
At 4:51 AM today, Central Park was sitting at a balmy 54°F—six degrees above our threshold. The crowd is mispricing the evening cooling curve, confusing Tuesday morning's low with Monday's calendar-day minimum.
Will Powell say Anchor / Anchored at his Mar 2026 press conference?
Powell has read the exact phrase 'keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored' in 100% of his pressers for the last two years—it's not just a habit, it's a script.
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in February?
The Cleveland Fed's Nowcast sits at 0.21%—razor-close to the threshold—but the 6.9% surge in January airline fares guarantees a mean-reversion drag that tips the scale to 'No'.
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 3?
Market prices 'Key' at 81%, but the confirmed 'Snake' challenge historically uses knots, not keys. Without a lock-and-key mechanic, you're betting solely on Jeff's metaphors.
Will the high temp in Miami be 84-85° on Mar 8, 2026? — 84° to 85°
The NWS explicitly forecasts 83°F for today, yet the market prices the 84-85°F bin at 57% — betting against the house on a narrow target.
Will the minimum temperature be <47° on Mar 8, 2026?
Philly's morning low already settled at 52°F—five degrees above the strike—and hourly models keep tonight's drop above 50°F until well after the midnight cutoff.
Top US Netflix Show on Mar 9, 2026? — Bridgerton: Season 4
Bridgerton's only rival, 'One Piece', releases March 10—exactly 24 hours too late to impact the March 9 chart.
CPI core year-over-year in Feb 2026?
The Cleveland Fed's 2.46% Nowcast is a statistical trap—it rounds up to 2.5%, and with a low 0.2% base effect dropping out, the math fights the 2.4% target.