Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in February?

The strongest argument for a print above 0.2% (i.e., 0.3% or higher) is the resurgence in core goods prices, specifically used vehicles. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 0.8% month-over-month in February 2026, a sharp reversal from the deflationary trend seen in January's CPI print (-1.8% contribution). Historically, Manheim data leads CPI used car components by 1-2 months, but the magnitude of the February wholesale jump suggests immediate pass-through could boost the core goods basket, which has been a reliable drag on inflation for months. Additionally, the 'sticky shelter' thesis remains a potent risk. While January's shelter print cooled to 0.2%, this may have been a statistical aberration rather than a trend change. RBC Economics noted on March 6 that 'data quirks' and missing shelter data might be artificially depressing recent prints. If shelter reverts to its 12-month trend of 0.3-0.4%, combined with the new inflationary impulse from used cars, the math for a 0.3% rounded print becomes easy to hit even with some cooling in other services.

The case for a print of 0.2% (or lower) is anchored by the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast, which stands at 0.21% as of March 6, 2026. This model has a high historical accuracy for near-term inflation and explicitly accounts for daily fuel and high-frequency data. A 0.21% unrounded figure would round down to 0.2%, resolving the market to 'No'. This forecast is corroborated by FXStreet's model, which projects a 0.19% increase, citing a broad cooling in services inflation that outweighs goods pressure. The specific driver for this cooling is the 'airline payback' effect. Airline fares surged a massive 6.9% in January 2026, an unsustainable outlier driven by holiday timing and residual seasonality. February typically sees a mean reversion in travel components; a drop of 2-4% in airfares would shave approximately 3-5 basis points off the headline core number. Combined with slowing wage growth (as evidenced by recent weak ADP data) dampening 'supercore' services prices, the deflationary forces in the service sector are likely to overpower the uptick in used cars.