Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will average gas prices be above $3.580?
The market is pricing off yesterday's $3.32 headlines, but AAA just printed $3.413 this morning—at the current 9-cent daily velocity, we cross $3.580 by Monday morning.
Will the high temp in LA be <78° on Mar 7, 2026?
NWS explicitly forecasts 78°F for LAX today, backed by a confirmed Santa Ana event—directly contradicting the raw model consensus of 68-71°F.
Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 220 Truth Social posts the week of Mar 1, 2026?
With the Iran conflict shifting to 'victory lap' mode, Trump's volume is primed to spike, making the 'Over 220' risk significantly higher than the market's 61% confidence implies.
Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Mar 7, 2026?
NWS explicitly forecasts a high near 70°F for the airport, leaving the 67-68°F bin stranded on the cold shoulder of the distribution.
Hoppers Rotten Tomatoes score? — Above 92
Pixar's 'Hoppers' debuted at 97% on 73 reviews—tying 'Coco' and beating 'Toy Story 4'. With critics calling it the studio's 'best in a decade,' a 5-point drop by Monday is mathematically unlikely.
Will above 10000 jobs be added in February 2026? — 10,000
The 'Blizzard of 2026' hit ten days after the BLS survey week closed, meaning the market is pricing in a weather ghost that won't haunt the data.
Will the minimum temperature be >42° on Mar 6, 2026?
O'Hare observations held at 43°F through the critical pre-dawn hours, and a warm front is now lifting temperatures safely away from the 42°F cutoff.
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in February 2026?
The Cleveland Fed's Nowcast sits at 2.46%—firmly below the 2.6% threshold needed for a YES payout. With a 0.23% base effect from 2025 dropping out, we need a hot 0.3% monthly print to trigger the upside, but high-frequency data points to cooling.
How many awards will One Battle After Another win at the Oscars?
With 16 nominations, Sinners is the classic 'Tech Giant' that eats the crafts but loses the big prize—a dynamic that historically lands the Best Picture winner exactly 5 Oscars.
Will the high temp in Miami be 82-83° on Mar 6, 2026? — 82° to 83°
Yesterday hit 84°F, but today's 20-knot marine wind creates a perfect 'cooling cap' that aligns with the NWS 83°F target.
Will the high temp in Austin be 83-84° on Mar 5, 2026? — 83° to 84°
Yesterday hit 88°F under clouds; today brings sun by noon. The 83-84°F bin is fighting a hot trend.
Will Powell say Credit at his Mar 2026 press conference?
Powell said 'credit' in July, September, and October 2025 as subprime defaults rose—with delinquencies still climbing in 2026, he can't avoid the word.
Will the high temp in Chicago be <45° on Mar 5, 2026? — 44° or below
Fox 32 predicts a high of 42°F while NWS sees 48°F—a massive divergence driven by a sharp 20-degree gradient sitting right over Chicago.
What will the announcers say during Holloway vs Oliveira professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 7, 2026?
Jon Anik's 'blood shower' commentary history meets Max Holloway's 7.2 strikes-per-minute volume—51% is a misprice for a BMF title fight.
Will above 40000 jobs be added in February 2026? — 40,000
ADP's 63k print yesterday beat the 48k consensus, signaling private sector strength that should override the 31k Kaiser strike drag. With the market pricing a coin flip, the 40k threshold is a buy.
Will the White House Press Secretary say Biden at her next press briefing?
Leavitt averaged 5 Biden mentions per briefing in 2025—now with the Iran war providing a perfect 'blame the predecessor' angle, she won't take the podium without using it.
Will the high temp in LA be 68-69° on Mar 4, 2026?
The NWS is forecasting 72°F for LAX today—3 degrees above this target—and with a shallow 800-foot marine layer, the physics favor the over.
CPI year-over-year in Feb 2026?
The Cleveland Fed's Nowcast sits at 2.39%—a rounding error away from 2.4%, not 2.5%. With a high 0.4% base effect from last year, the math fights the narrative.
Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 41.6% for Mar 5, 2026?
VoteHub's average has collapsed 0.8 points in five days to 40.8%, weighed down by a brutal 36% CNN print — betting on a reversal to 41.6% in 24 hours fights both momentum and math.
The Bride! Rotten Tomatoes score? — Above 50
Critics are calling it 'breathtaking' and 'revolutionary'—yet the market prices it at 44%, seemingly anchored to year-old rumors rather than today's glowing reviews.