Will average gas prices be above $3.580?

The market is pricing this off stale data ($3.32) while the actual AAA national average hit $3.413 on March 7, leaving a gap of just 16.7 cents to cover in two days. The velocity of the price spike is accelerating, jumping from +7 cents on March 6 to +9.3 cents on March 7. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed (blocking 20% of global oil supply) and RBOB gasoline futures closing at session highs of $2.77 (+3.6%) on Friday, the wholesale-to-retail pass-through is in its steepest 'rocket' phase. A repeat of the last two days' momentum (avg +8.2c) would land the March 9 print at ~$3.58, and any acceleration pushes it comfortably over. Political headwinds that might cap prices have been removed for the resolution window. President Trump explicitly ruled out an immediate Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release on March 6, stating 'if they rise, they rise' and prioritizing the military operation over short-term pump prices. Without a government price freeze or supply injection, market forces will drive retail prices to catch up with the $2.77 wholesale benchmark (which implies a retail price closer to $3.70+).

Despite the war narrative, a 17-cent jump in two days requires historic, outlier volatility that rarely sustains over a weekend. Retail gas prices often exhibit a 'weekend lull' in reporting as station volume drops, and the AAA average is a lagging indicator that smooths out extreme intraday moves. If the daily change reverts even slightly to the 7-day average of ~4-5 cents (instead of the recent 9 cents), the price will land around $3.50-$3.55, missing the $3.580 threshold. Furthermore, the 'Trump Put' on oil prices could manifest unexpectedly. While he dismissed an SPR release 'for now,' the administration is reportedly 'looking under every rock' for solutions. A surprise announcement on Sunday (e.g., an export ban or emergency waiver) could halt the futures rally immediately, causing station owners to pause price hikes. The market's 44% pricing reflects a rational skepticism that the exponential price curve can be maintained for 48 more hours without a pullback.