Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will the White House Press Secretary say Affordable / Affordability at her next press briefing?
Despite the 46% market price, Karine Jean-Pierre has used the word 'affordable' in 83% of briefings since February 15, including three mentions during yesterday's session on housing costs.
Will the high temp in Chicago be 41-42° on Mar 3, 2026? — 41° to 42°
With the NWS forecasting a 41°F high and the historical average sitting at 42°F, the 44% market price ignores a rare alignment of models and history.
Hoppers Rotten Tomatoes score? — Above 95
Only 17% of Pixar's original films in the last decade have cleared the 95% hurdle, yet the market is pricing a 59% chance for Hoppers to join that elite tier.
Will the maximum temperature be 87-88° on Mar 3, 2026?
Consumer apps eye 87°F, but the official NWS forecast predicts record-challenging heat 'at or just above 90°F.' This makes the narrow 87-88°F window a likely casualty of the desert sun.
Will above 30000 jobs be added in February 2026? — 30,000
After 2025 was revised down to a measly 15,000 jobs per month, January’s 130,000 surge looks like a breakout, yet markets still price a 33% chance of a sub-30k February.
Will egg prices rise by more than 0% in Feb 2026?
Wholesale egg prices plummeted 26% in February to $0.81 per dozen, creating a massive disconnect with the 27% market odds that retail prices rose above January's $2.58 average.
What will Donald Trump say during next White House (YouTube) live announcement by Donald Trump?
Trump has used Epic Fury in every major address since February 28, yet the market prices a repeat at just 55%. As the official name of an active war, its omission would be a major pivot.
Will The Romantic by Bruno Mars have At least 100000 album sales the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for March 06, 2026?
With 'Risk It All' topping Spotify, Bruno is winning the streaming war, but early projections of 200k total units imply his pure sales will land closer to 80k than the 100k needed for a payout.
The Bride! Rotten Tomatoes score? — Above 60
The market is pricing in 'disaster' rumors from 2025, ignoring the 'electric' premiere reactions from 72 hours ago that signal a score well above 60%.
Will above 100000 jobs be added in February 2026? — 100,000
The market is pricing a crash to 60k jobs, but January just printed 130k—if the 210k trailing average holds any weight, the 15% price for >100k is a massive mispricing.
Will the high temp in LA be <66° on Mar 2, 2026?
Midnight at LAX was already 64.9°F—just 1.1° shy of the limit—and with noon temps back at 64.4°F and NWS calling for 'upper 60s,' the 'Under 66°' thesis is effectively dead.
Will above 60000 jobs be added in February 2026? — 60,000
Consensus forecasts sit between 65k and 80k, yet the market prices a miss at 59%. With health care adding 124k alone in January, the floor is higher than traders think.
Will average gas prices be above $2.988?
Gas needs a 0.5-cent jump on a Sunday to win; yesterday it only managed 0.2 cents.
Will the high temp in LA be >78° on Mar 1, 2026?
The sea breeze arrived early (11 AM), capping LAX at 77°F—two degrees short of the payout. With onshore winds now blowing at 12 knots, the high is likely set.
Will DEADLINE have at least 100000 pure album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for March 5th, 2026?
Blackpink's 'DEADLINE' sold 1.46 million copies in Korea on Day 1, but a calendar technicality makes the US target impossible.
Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Mar 1, 2026?
At 3 PM, DFW is already 80°F under sunny skies—just 2 degrees from a loss. With peak heating ahead and forecasts targeting 82°F, the 53% price ignores the momentum.
Will the high temp in Miami be 84-85° on Feb 28, 2026? — 84° to 85°
With a stalled front to the north and a 72°F head start, Miami is locked into the warm sector—making the NWS forecast of 85°F the smart money play.
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in February?
Unemployment fell from 4.5% to 4.3% in two months, yet the market prices a 46% chance of a rebound—ignoring that jobless claims just hit a four-week low of 212k.
Will the high temp in NYC be >45° on Feb 27, 2026? — 46° or above
The NWS Point Forecast for Central Park updated this morning to 'High near 46°F,' while the market is still pricing in last night's 40°F guidance.
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Corpus Christi?
Trump's SOTU just three days ago featured 'mass deportation' as a key applause line—with the Texas primary on Tuesday, he's unlikely to drop his signature brand in a border state.