Will egg prices rise by more than 0% in Feb 2026?

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) returned with significant force in February 2026, resulting in the depopulation of 7.8 million birds year-to-date. A single outbreak in Pennsylvania affected 2.64 million hens on February 17, followed by another 1.45 million on February 18, creating a sudden supply shock that typically triggers immediate wholesale price spikes. Historical seasonality strongly favors a price increase in February as retailers begin stocking for the April 5 Easter holiday. Over the last decade, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has recorded a month-over-month price increase in 70% of February reports. This demand pull often offsets broader deflationary trends in the poultry sector. Wholesale prices experienced a short-lived jump to $1.20 per dozen in mid-January following the first 2026 HPAI detections in Georgia and Colorado. Because retail prices typically lag wholesale movements by two to four weeks, this mid-January peak likely hit grocery store shelves during the February BLS sampling window, potentially keeping the monthly average above January's $2.58 level.

Wholesale egg prices collapsed in the final weeks of February, rendering a retail price increase highly improbable. The USDA Egg Markets Overview on February 27 reported that New York Large cartoned eggs fell 17% to $0.81 per dozen, while Midwest warehouse prices plummeted 26% to $0.88. These levels are nearly 70% below the peaks seen in 2025 and indicate a market in freefall despite bird flu headlines. Retailers have already passed these savings to consumers through aggressive promotions. The USDA reported that the average national retail ad price for conventional eggs dropped $0.41 to $1.42 per dozen in the week ending February 27, a 22% decline. With featured prices sitting more than a dollar below the January BLS average of $2.58, the downward pressure on the February index is overwhelming. Supply remains in a state of massive inventory overhang that has neutralized the impact of recent flock losses. National shell egg inventories rose 7% in February, and Midwest stocks swelled by 21% as movement into marketing channels slowed. USDA economists noted on February 25 that production recovery and a surge in imports have created a glut that continues to anchor prices at multi-year lows.