Will the minimum temperature be >48° on Mar 9, 2026?

The morning minimum is already secured well above the 48°F threshold. Official NWS observations for Central Park (KNYC) recorded 54°F at 4:51 AM EDT on March 9. With sunrise at 6:21 AM and calm winds, the temperature will not drop the required 6+ degrees in the 90 minutes before solar heating begins. The morning low will likely settle around 52-53°F. The only remaining risk is the evening temperature drop, but it will not reach 48°F before midnight. While the NWS forecast low for 'Monday Night' is 44-47°F, this minimum will occur on Tuesday morning around 6 AM. The calendar day minimum for March 9 cuts off at 11:59 PM. AccuWeather's hourly forecast predicts the temperature will still be 55°F at 11 PM on Monday. The urban heat island effect in Central Park significantly slows evening radiational cooling. NWS National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance for similar recent nights shows temperatures dropping only about 1 degree per hour after 8 PM. With a forecast high of 68°F, the temperature at midnight will comfortably remain in the low-to-mid 50s, securing a YES resolution.

Radiational cooling could be stronger than expected. With clear skies and light winds forecast for Monday night, the atmosphere is primed for maximum heat loss. If the temperature drops faster than the models predict after the 6:55 PM sunset, it could cross the 48°F threshold just before 11:59 PM. The sea breeze could accelerate the evening cooldown. The NWS forecasts a south wind of 5-10 mph for Monday afternoon and evening. Because ocean temperatures off the coast of New York are currently in the low 40s, this marine layer could advect cold air into Manhattan, causing temperatures to plummet into the 40s earlier in the evening. Some hourly models are already predicting a close call. TimeAndDate's hourly forecast for New York predicts 49°F at 11 PM and 48°F at 12 AM. If this specific cooling curve verifies, the temperature could hit 48°F exactly at 11:59 PM, which would trigger a NO resolution since the market requires strictly greater than 48°F.