Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the March Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?

The strongest indicator for this market is actual financial market pricing. As of March 5, 2026, the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures contract was trading at 96.125, which indicates only a 22 percent implied probability of a rate increase to 4.10 percent. This means institutional money is pricing a 78 percent probability that the RBA maintains the current 3.85 percent rate at the March meeting. Prediction markets currently pricing this at 52 percent are significantly disconnected from the actual futures market. Furthermore, the consensus among Australia's Big Four banks (ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac) remains unanimous: the RBA will hold rates in March and wait until May to hike. Central banks rarely surprise the unanimous consensus of major domestic institutions unless forced by an intra-meeting crisis. CBA economists reiterated on March 4 that while the debate will be lively, their base case remains a hold for March. Finally, institutional mechanics favor a May move. The RBA typically prefers to execute rate changes at meetings that coincide with the release of the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and full quarterly CPI data. The next Statement on Monetary Policy and Q1 CPI data will be available for the May meeting. Having just hiked in February 2026, a back-to-back hike in a non-statement month would be highly unusual without a massive upside data surprise.

The primary risk to a hold is RBA Governor Michele Bullock's explicit forward guidance. Speaking at the AFR Business Summit on March 2-3, 2026, Bullock warned that the March meeting is live for a potential rate hike. She specifically cited the prolonged oil price spike resulting from recent attacks on Iran and a tight labor market with 4.1 percent unemployment as factors that could force the board to move more quickly than anticipated. Following Bullock's comments, some prominent economists broke from the consensus to forecast an immediate hike. On March 3, CreditorWatch chief economist Ivan Colhoun stated that a 0.25 percent increase in March is now his base case, noting that the March meeting was previously very under-priced. Coolabah Capital also indicated they narrowly favor a hike this month, suggesting that the RBA's tolerance for sticky inflation is waning. Domestic economic data provides the ammunition for a hawkish surprise. Data released on March 4 showed Q4 2025 GDP grew at a robust 0.8 percent, which CBA economists noted means the economy is running above its speed limit. Combined with January 2026 CPI remaining stubbornly high at 3.8 percent, the RBA board might conclude that their February hike was insufficient and execute a back-to-back increase to anchor inflation expectations.