Will the maximum temperature be >83° on Mar 16, 2026?

The synoptic setup for this event is an exceptionally strong, early-season high-pressure ridge. The National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion from March 15 notes 500MB heights around 591 to 595 decameters, which is highly anomalous for March and creates a potent 'heat dome' effect. This pattern is expected to push temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal across the Bay Area. If offshore winds (Diablo winds) materialize stronger than currently modeled, they could completely neutralize the marine layer. The NWS zone forecast for the coast explicitly includes a range of 'upper 70s to mid 80s.' If the offshore flow pushes the heat all the way to the water, SFO could easily hit the upper end of that range, reaching 84°F or 85°F and triggering a YES resolution. Furthermore, the all-time March record for SFO is 85°F, set on March 25, 1962. Given that meteorologists are warning this heatwave could shatter all-time monthly records across the region, SFO has the atmospheric potential to challenge its 85°F record, which would clear the >83°F threshold.

The most critical factor in this market is the exact resolution station. The Kalshi rules explicitly state the market resolves based on the Daily Climate Report for 'San Francisco Airport' (KSFO). Media headlines, such as the San Francisco Chronicle's March 15 report that 'San Francisco's high temperature is forecast to be 84 degrees or higher,' are referring to the city's official weather station in the Mission District (SFOC1). The Mission District is significantly warmer than the airport, which sits directly on the San Francisco Bay. The official NWS point forecast for SFO on Monday, March 16, is exactly 81°F. Because the market requires a temperature strictly greater than 83°F, the station must record at least 84°F to resolve YES. This requires a 3-degree forecast bust on the warm side. While forecast busts happen, they are rare at coastal stations during heatwaves. As noted in our postmortem category insights, coastal stations like SFO consistently resist inland heatwaves due to the marine buffer. The NWS Area Forecast Discussion from March 15 confirms this dynamic is in play, stating: 'A very shallow marine layer remains in place today and should keep conditions near the coast cooler than areas inland.' This marine influence makes a 3-degree overperformance highly unlikely.