Will Powell say Dot Plot at his Mar 2026 press conference?

March is a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) month, meaning the dot plot will be physically released and will be the primary focus of the press conference. The current economic context—specifically the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariffs and their impact on inflation—has led to a wide dispersion in the FOMC's rate projections. Reporters will aggressively question this dispersion, repeatedly using the term "dot plot" in their prompts. Furthermore, Powell has shown a willingness to use the term colloquially when explaining the dispersion of committee views. In his September 2025 press conference, he explicitly stated, "as you will see from the dot plot," when discussing the range of views on rate cuts. He also used the term in June 2024, saying, "Summary of Economic Projections and, and the dot plot." This proves the phrase is in his active vocabulary and not strictly forbidden by Fed communication guidelines.

Powell's strong institutional preference is to use the official term, "Summary of Economic Projections" or "SEP." He consistently corrects or translates reporter questions that use the colloquialism. For instance, in December 2023, when a reporter asked about the "dot plot," Powell responded by discussing whose "SEP is right." In March 2024, he replied to a similar question by stating, "So we published an SEP today." The historical base rate strongly supports this discipline. Out of the last 20 SEP press conferences (2021-2025), Powell has only used the term "dot plot" 4 times (March 2021, June 2021, June 2024, and September 2025). This means that 80% of the time, even when the dot plot is released and heavily discussed, he successfully avoids the term. Furthermore, the term never appears in his prepared opening remarks. It only occurs if he slips during the unscripted Q&A session. Given the heightened scrutiny on the Fed's independence and policy path in early 2026, Powell is likely to be exceptionally disciplined in his language, sticking strictly to official terminology.