Will the maximum temperature be 43-44° on Mar 13, 2026?

The primary path to YES relies on the 12:53 AM CDT observation of 45°F on March 13 being a preliminary rounding artifact. ASOS sensors measure in Celsius, and a reading between 6.5°C and 6.9°C translates to 43.7°F to 44.4°F. If the exact temperature was 44.4°F, the official NWS Climatological Report could round this down to exactly 44°F, landing perfectly in the winning bin. Additionally, if the midnight temperature spike is quality-controlled out of the final climate report due to sensor error during the high wind event (the NWS reported gusts to 39 mph at 12:53 AM), the official high would default to the daytime maximum. While the NWS zone forecast for March 13 predicts a daytime high of 37°F, rapid clearing and strong March sun could allow afternoon temperatures to overachieve and reach the 43-44°F range. Finally, historical data from Weather Underground shows that Minneapolis temperatures can occasionally spike 5-7 degrees above forecast models during early spring warm advection events. If the cold front stalls or retreats slightly on the afternoon of March 13, the temperature could rebound into the 43-44°F window.

The NWS recorded a temperature of 45°F at 12:53 AM CDT on March 13 at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (KMSP). Because the daily climate report captures the 24-hour maximum from midnight to midnight, this early morning observation establishes a hard floor for the daily high. Since 45°F is above the 44°F ceiling of the market, this single observation effectively guarantees a NO resolution. Furthermore, ASOS stations record the highest 1-minute temperature for the daily maximum, not just the hourly METAR readings. If the hourly observation was 45°F, the peak temperature between 12:00 AM and 1:00 AM on March 13 was likely 45°F or 46°F. This makes it highly improbable that the official high will be revised down to 44°F in the final NWS Climatological Report. Even if the midnight observation is discarded, the daytime atmospheric setup does not support a high of 43-44°F. A strong cold front passed through Minneapolis early on March 13, shifting winds to the northwest and bringing strong cold air advection. The NWS zone forecast explicitly calls for a daytime high of only 37°F, with AccuWeather forecasting an even lower 35°F for the afternoon.