Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will the high temp in Philadelphia be 41-42° on Mar 18, 2026?
Despite the NWS forecasting exactly 42F, afternoon clearing and a south wind shift create a massive 76% probability that temperature creep busts this fragile 2-degree bin.
What will Kash Patel say during House Intelligence Committee: hearing on the 2026 Annual Worldwide Threats Assessment?
While the Strait of Hormuz crisis has driven oil to 126 dollars a barrel, prediction markets price DNI Tulsi Gabbard at just 50 percent to mention it, making a YES for the domestically focused FBI Director severely overpriced.
Will the maximum temperature be >58° on Mar 18, 2026?
With a morning low near 32°F and incoming high clouds, Atlanta needs a massive 27-degree diurnal swing to hit the 59°F required for a YES resolution.
Will the high temp in Chicago be >47° on Mar 18, 2026? — 48° or above
Facing a 24-degree morning deficit and fresh snow cover, Chicago Midway needs a miraculous 6-degree forecast beat to reach 48°F today.
Will Trump say "Autopen / Auto Pen" before Mar 23, 2026?
Despite Trump's recent fixation on the 'autopen' controversy, the escalating Iran conflict is consuming his rhetorical bandwidth, making a repeat mention this week less than a coin flip.
What will Kathy Hochul say during next Governor Kathy Hochul announcement?
While Hochul frequently attacks her predecessor, her official 2026 transcripts show an 80% preference for the title 'former president' over the surname 'Trump,' making a specific name-drop surprisingly rare.
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Mar 14, 2026?
With the 4-week claims average already sitting at 214,000 as of March 5, the market's 205,000 threshold requires a sudden 4% drop in layoffs that current WARN notices simply don't support.
Will above 0 jobs be added in March 2026?
Despite a mechanical 31,000-job boost from returning strikers, the February loss of 92,000 jobs and the recent Iran war shock suggest organic hiring has frozen, pointing toward a negative print.
Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in March?
With 137 confirmed tornadoes already logged in just the first 12 days of March, the preliminary count is mathematically on the verge of crossing 200.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >89.99 on Mar 16, 2026? — 90.0 or above
With WTI crude trading near $98 and only hours until settlement, it would take a historic 8% intraday crash to breach the $89.99 threshold.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >92.99 on Mar 16, 2026? — 93.0 or above
With WTI trading near $100 and only hours until settlement, a drop below $93 requires a historic 7% intraday collapse.
What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)?
Starmer explicitly named President Trump in both the March 4 PMQs and a March 16 press conference, breaking his historical avoidance pattern and making the 48-cent market price a clear underreaction.
Reminders of Him Rotten Tomatoes score? — Above 55
Despite a 7-point slide since its Friday debut, Reminders of Him holds a 56% critic score just 90 minutes before resolution, leaving the film with a razor-thin one-point lead over the threshold.
Will the maximum temperature be >83° on Mar 16, 2026?
Media headlines scream '84 degrees in San Francisco,' but they're talking about the Mission District — the official NWS forecast for the SFO resolution station is only 81°F.
How many awards will One Battle After Another win at the Oscars?
Despite 11 nominations, One Battle After Another's loss at the SAG Awards on February 28 suggests it lacks the broad support for a sweep, making exactly 4 wins a 28% statistical probability.
How many awards will Hamnet win at the Oscars?
While Jessie Buckley's precursor sweep establishes a strong floor, pricing an eight-leg parlay of one win and seven losses at 90c ignores the very real threat of a second craft trophy.
Will Powell say Probability at his Mar 2026 press conference?
Powell explicitly told reporters in September 2025 to view the Fed's projections 'through the lens of probability,' making the crowd's 42% price a severe underestimation of his SEP meeting habits.
Will legislation providing full-year FY2026 discretionary appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security (including via continuing resolution) become law before Apr 1, 2026?
With ICE and CBP insulated by $150 billion in unspent reconciliation funds and the Senate deadlocked, a full-year DHS funding deal before April 1 is highly improbable.
Men's March Madness Round of 64 Qualifiers
Missouri's toxic NET ranking of 58 makes a trip to the First Four highly probable, effectively halving their chances of reaching the Round of 64 to a coin flip.
Venezuela vs Japan Winner?
Despite crossing 13 time zones, Japan's undefeated WBC quarterfinal pedigree and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's arm make them a solid bet at 62c.