Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 5?
Jeff Probst has used the word 'key' in over 80% of New Era episodes, making the current 64% market price a significant discount on a structural reality TV staple.
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in March?
Initial jobless claims plunged to 205,000 during the exact week the BLS surveyed households for the March jobs report, making a sudden spike to 4.6 percent unemployment mathematically daunting.
Will the high temp in Austin be 92-93° on Mar 22, 2026? — 92° to 93°
The official NWS forecast for Austin today is 94 degrees, sitting above this market's narrow target bin and making the 62-cent YES price a statistical anomaly.
Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in March 2026?
Gasoline prices have surged 30% this month, but the Cleveland Fed's nowcast sits at just 0.62%. With a 1.0% print required for YES, the crowd is likely overestimating this outlier.
Will the maximum temperature be 91-92° on Mar 22, 2026?
Las Vegas has never recorded a 90-degree day before March 25, making today's 91-92 degree target bin an extreme historical outlier.
#2 US Netflix Movie on Mar 23, 2026? — Gaslit By My Husband: The Morgan Metzer Story
Facing a brutal weekend gauntlet of Peaky Blinders and major animated sequels, Gaslit By My Husband is highly likely to drop past the fragile #2 spot to #3 or lower.
Will the high temp in Austin be 93-94° on Mar 21, 2026? — 93° to 94°
Consumer weather apps say 91°F, but local NWS meteorologists just manually overrode the models to forecast exactly 94°F. When the official forecast sits perfectly in our 2-degree bin, the market is mispricing the heat.
How many launches will SpaceX have in March? — above 14
SpaceX must nearly double its daily launch rate to 0.7 missions per day for the rest of March to hit 15, a feat currently threatened by a 40% chance of Florida storms.
What will the announcers say during Evloev vs Murphy professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026?
Movsar Evloev has gone to a decision in 100% of his UFC bouts, giving commentators at least 15 minutes of airtime to discuss his American Top Team training camp.
Will the maximum temperature be 103-104° on Mar 21, 2026?
With the official NWS forecast calling for 105 degrees, betting on the 103-104 degree bin requires the historic heatwave to underperform expectations by a precise 1-to-2 degree margin.
Will above 40000 jobs be added in March 2026? — 40,000
With 35,200 striking healthcare workers mechanically returning to March payrolls, the economy only needs to add 4,801 jobs to clear the 40,000 threshold despite recent geopolitical headwinds.
Will the minimum temperature be <41° on Mar 21, 2026?
With Central Park temperatures holding at 45°F to 51°F this morning and tonight's low forecasted at 45°F, a drop below 41°F before midnight would require a meteorological miracle.
Will the price of the Rolex Submariner 41 Date 126610LN-0001 be above $13129 at March 31, 2026?
With just 11 days until resolution and current spot prices universally reported above $13,165, the Rolex Submariner 126610LN has a strong mathematical buffer to survive the quarter's luxury downtrend.
Will the high temp in LA be 81-82° on Mar 20, 2026?
While regional discussions imply an 81-degree high, updated point forecasts have dropped to 79F as the marine layer returns, making this narrow 2-degree coastal window highly unlikely.
Will the maximum temperature be <91° on Mar 20, 2026?
The NWS officially forecasts a record-tying 92°F for Dallas today, but with a razor-thin one-degree buffer, the 25% market price significantly underprices the likelihood of a standard forecast miss.
Will above 80000 jobs be added in March 2026? — 80,000
A guaranteed 30,000-job boost from returning healthcare strikers and a 38,000-job weather rebound sets a massive mechanical floor, making the 21% market price a severe underreaction.
What will Donald Trump say during Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation?
Trump has used 'excursion' dozens of times this week to describe the Iran war, but speechwriters will fight to keep the gaffe out of today's formal East Room teleprompter.
Will the minimum temperature be 31-32° on Mar 19, 2026?
With the NWS already reporting a 32°F low at 6:51 AM and evening temperatures forecast to stay near 40°F, the 31-32°F bin is currently the heavy favorite to hold through midnight.
Will the maximum temperature be 103-104° on Mar 19, 2026?
The NWS officially forecasts a high of 103-104 degrees for Phoenix today, but our postmortem data shows narrow 2-degree temperature bins are notoriously fragile, making NO the statistically safer play.
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.82 on Mar 31?
With the Ornn H100 index sitting at just $1.71 as of March 17, betting on a spike to $1.82 requires ignoring a massive supply glut that has crushed GPU rental prices.