Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will the minimum temperature be <53° on Mar 26, 2026?
With the Los Angeles dew point sitting at a sticky 57 degrees just hours before sunrise, a drop below 53 degrees is meteorologically impossible without a sudden air mass change.
Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 20 on Apr 1, 2026?
With daily transits hovering around 5 and war risk insurance up 33x, reaching a 20-ship average by April 1 requires an immediate, miraculous resumption of commercial shipping through an active minefield.
ADP employment change in Mar 2026?
ADP's high-frequency weekly pulse is tracking just 10,000 jobs per week in early March, projecting a monthly total near 40,000—well short of the 75,000 threshold required for a Yes resolution.
CPI month-over-month in Mar 2026?
Despite a 33% mid-month gasoline spike, the Cleveland Fed's 0.76% nowcast and a 10% late-month oil crash suggest March CPI will miss the 1.0% mark, making NO the high-probability play.
Will the minimum temperature be 35-36° on Mar 25, 2026?
Central Park's 39.9°F morning low and a 52°F forecast high have effectively eliminated the 35-36°F target range, yet the market still assigns an 11% probability to a sub-37°F finish today.
CPI year-over-year in Mar 2026?
To hit exactly 3.4% year-over-year, headline CPI would need a historic 1.19% month-over-month spike, far exceeding the Cleveland Fed's 3.16% nowcast.
Will Trump say "Autopen / Auto Pen" before Mar 30, 2026?
Trump recently replaced Joe Biden's official White House portrait with a framed photo of an autopen, ensuring the mechanical grievance remains at the forefront of his daily press interactions.
Will the maximum temperature be >70° on Mar 25, 2026?
After a record 90°F on March 20, a cold front is now capping San Francisco at 66°F today. Despite model noise, the 91.5% 'No' probability correctly bets on the sea breeze's return.
What will Melania Trump say during Fostering the Future Together Global Coalition Summit on March 25th?
Safety and Protection Online is one of the four official pillars of the March 2026 summit, making her use of the word highly probable.
What will Jack Black say during Saturday Night Live opening monologue?
With the Mario sequel opening just 24 hours prior, Jack Black's monologue serves as a massive promotional vehicle where a Bowser name-drop is highly probable.
Will ARIRANG have At Least 450000 pure album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for March 27, 2026?
While BTS's reunion album is tracking toward a massive 600,000 total units, strict Luminate filtering rules and shipping delays make the 90-cent price tag on 450,000 pure sales too steep.
Will the minimum temperature be >33° on Mar 24, 2026?
Real-time observations show Philadelphia temperatures already hitting 33 degrees before sunrise, effectively locking in a NO resolution barring an official sensor discrepancy.
Will the silver open price be below $64.50 at Mar 31, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Silver's rebound to $70 relies entirely on a 5-day military pause expiring March 28; with Iran denying negotiations, a resumption of strikes could easily trigger another liquidation back to $61.
Will the gold open price be below $4380.00 at Mar 31, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — 4379.99 or below
With spot gold already hovering near $4,430 and a fragile ceasefire set to expire just days before resolution, the safe-haven premium is primed to return and keep prices elevated.
They Will Kill You Rotten Tomatoes score? — Above 70
With a fragile 76 percent from friendly SXSW critics, They Will Kill You faces a mathematically daunting festival drop upon its March 27 wide release.
How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during next The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Despite O'Donnell's aggressive Trump's war framing, breaking military crises force cable hosts to interview experts and use technical jargon, making the 55-mention threshold mathematically prohibitive.
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Mar 21, 2026?
Despite last week's surprise drop to 205,000, a wave of 17,600 tech layoffs and a 4-week moving average of 210,750 strongly favor a mean-reverting bounce above the 210,000 threshold.
Will the maximum temperature be >73° on Mar 23, 2026?
With official NWS forecasts peaking at 70°F and a 1,000-foot marine layer returning, betting on SFO to break 73°F requires fighting a stiff onshore breeze.
Will above -25000 jobs be added in March 2026? — -25,000
The February jobs report shocked markets with a 92,000 loss, but 31,000 of those were striking Kaiser Permanente workers. With the strike resolved, March payrolls have a massive mechanical head start.
How many Tesla deliveries will there be this quarter? — 380000
With UBS slashing Q1 estimates to 345,000 and global retail sales down year-over-year, Tesla faces a mathematically improbable climb to 380,000 deliveries.