Will above -25000 jobs be added in March 2026? — -25,000

The February 2026 jobs report shocked markets with a 92,000 loss, but this was heavily distorted by one-off events that will reverse in March. Most notably, a massive strike by 31,000 Kaiser Permanente healthcare workers sidelined them during the February BLS survey week. The strike officially ended on February 24, 2026, meaning these workers will automatically be added back to the March payrolls, providing a mechanical 31,000 boost to the headline number before any organic hiring is counted. Furthermore, severe winter weather in February artificially depressed employment in weather-sensitive sectors, with construction losing 11,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality shedding 27,000. As weather normalizes in March, these sectors are expected to see a natural rebound, adding further positive pressure to the March NFP print. Finally, real-time labor market indicators for March show no signs of broad-based layoffs. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14, 2026, which aligns perfectly with the BLS survey week for the March report, fell by 8,000 to 205,000. This is the lowest level since January and firmly below consensus expectations, confirming the economy remains in a low-firing environment.

While the strike rebound provides a tailwind, the underlying trend in the US labor market has deteriorated significantly. The February report saw downward revisions to December (a 65,000 drop) and January (a 4,000 drop), indicating that the labor market was weaker than previously thought even before the strike and weather impacts. The 12-month average monthly job growth has slowed to a crawl, and the BLS population control adjustments have lowered the estimated labor force size. Additionally, the manufacturing and transportation sectors are experiencing genuine, non-weather-related contractions. In February, manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs and transportation and warehousing lost 11,300 jobs, continuing a year-long downward trend in the latter. If these cyclical sectors accelerate their job shedding in March, it could overwhelm the mechanical boost from the returning healthcare workers. Finally, the BLS birth-death model adjustments have introduced significant volatility. The new model adjusted jobs by negative 61,000 in January and positive 90,000 in February. If the March adjustment swings negatively, it could artificially depress the headline print, just as the February print was dragged down by a combination of methodological changes and real-world events.