Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 20 on Apr 1, 2026?

The physical and economic realities of the 2026 Iran War make a rapid resumption of shipping nearly impossible. As the contrarian analyst notes, daily AIS-transmitting transits have plummeted to just 4-6 vessels, a 96 percent decline from pre-war averages. To pull the 7-day moving average above 20 by April 1, daily transits would need to immediately quadruple to over 25 calls per day. The confirmed presence of Iranian naval mines presents a severe physical barrier. The calibration forecaster highlights that the US reportedly sank 16 Iranian minelaying ships, but the existing mines require slow, methodical clearing operations before commercial traffic can safely resume at scale. Even if hostilities pause, the physical danger in the water remains acute. Economic disincentives are currently insurmountable for major carriers. War risk insurance premiums have surged 33x to 5 percent of hull value. Commercial operators will not risk $100 million vessels while active hostilities persist, and major shipping firms have already suspended operations indefinitely.

A five-day diplomatic window announced in late March has paused kinetic strikes, opening the door for a rapid de-escalation. If a comprehensive maritime security agreement is reached, a massive backlog of over 150 to 400 stranded vessels anchored outside the strait could be released simultaneously, flooding the zone with traffic. The US Armed Forces initiated a campaign to reopen the strait on March 19. If the US Navy successfully establishes a secure, escorted convoy system, dozens of ships could transit in tight succession. This would rapidly spike the daily counts before the April 1 deadline, dragging the 7-day moving average up with it. There is a documented anomaly in the IMF PortWatch's automated geofencing. The calibration forecaster points out that the system occasionally double-counts ships drifting at anchor near Fujairah. A large staging of vessels waiting for military escort could artificially inflate the reported transit count above the 20-ship threshold regardless of actual completed crossings.