Will the maximum temperature be >70° on Mar 25, 2026?

The National Weather Service (NWS) Area Forecast Discussion issued at 4:59 AM PDT on March 25, 2026, explicitly projects coastal temperatures to remain in the 60s today. This cooling is driven by a weak surface cold front moving through the Bay Area this afternoon, which will deepen the marine layer to approximately 750-1000 feet and suppress peak heating. Surface pressure gradients are currently trending onshore, with the SFO-WMC gradient remaining positive through the daylight hours. NWS reports indicate locally gustier onshore winds between 20-30 mph along the coastline, which typically acts as a natural air conditioner for the San Francisco Downtown and Airport stations, preventing temperatures from reaching the 70-degree threshold during spring frontal passages. While the region experienced record-breaking heat earlier this week, including a historic 90°F on March 20, the atmospheric setup has shifted from a high-pressure ridge to a more zonal and eventually trough-influenced pattern. The NWS Climatological Report for March 23 already showed a decline to 71°F at the Downtown station, and today's cold front is expected to shave another 3-5 degrees off that peak, landing the high between 65°F and 67°F.

High-resolution ensemble models, including the GFS and ECMWF 12Z runs, have consistently projected a peak high of 72-74°F for the San Francisco International Airport (SFO) vicinity today. These models may be accounting for the residual warmth of the airmass following last week's unprecedented heatwave, where 850mb temperatures reached record levels of 23.4°C. If the approaching cold front is weaker than anticipated or its arrival is delayed until after 4:00 PM PDT, the city could see a brief window of solar heating sufficient to push the mercury past 70°F. The 'dry' nature of this front, as noted in the March 25 NWS discussion, means cloud cover may be sparse enough to allow significant surface warming before the marine air fully penetrates the interior of the city. Historical data from Extreme Weather Watch shows that San Francisco has already recorded 14 days of 70°F or higher in 2026 as of March 17. Given the anomalous warmth of the 2025-2026 winter, the base rate for hitting 70°F in late March is currently elevated compared to the 30-year average, suggesting that even a 'cool' day in this regime could still flirt with the low 70s.