Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 be above 90K?
A 31,000-job boost from returning striking workers will be entirely offset by a 30,000-job drag from unpaid DHS employees, leaving the headline print anchored to a weak 60,000 consensus.
Will the high temp in Austin be >89° on Apr 2, 2026? — 90° or above
Despite Austin baking at 92 degrees yesterday, an incoming rain system and an official NWS forecast of 81 to 83 degrees make a third consecutive 90-degree day highly unlikely.
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Mar 28, 2026?
With the consensus at 212,000 and the four-week average sitting at 210,500, the labor market's no-fire streak is holding strong, making a spike to 215,000 unlikely.
Will more than 2450000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? — 2.45 million
Monday's 2.53 million screenings already beat the target, and with TSA callouts plunging from 50% to 10% this week, the 2.45 million average looks like a low bar for the Easter surge.
Will the maximum temperature be 84-85° on Apr 1, 2026?
Yesterday Dallas hit 86 degrees, and with the NWS forecasting 88 degrees today amid 30 mph southerly gusts, betting on a narrow 84-85 degree window requires fighting a robust warming trend.
Will the high temp in Miami be 79-80° on Apr 1, 2026? — 79° to 80°
Trapped between a 76°F rain forecast and an 82°F ridging scenario, Miami's high temperature is highly unlikely to thread the narrow 79-80°F needle today.
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >97.99 on Apr 1, 2026? — 98.0 or above
WTI is in freefall following Trump's peace signals and a shock 10.2M barrel inventory build. At 77 cents, the market is severely underpricing the momentum dragging prices below the $98 threshold.
Will above 125000 jobs be added in March 2026? — 125,000
With Wall Street consensus sitting at just 57,000 jobs and leading indicators like ADP printing a dismal 40,000, the labor market lacks the momentum to clear the 125,000 threshold.
Will the maximum temperature be <88° on Apr 1, 2026?
San Antonio is already sitting at 71°F before sunrise, and with official forecasts targeting 90°F, the 88°F threshold is poised to be shattered.
Will USD/IRR for March 2026 be above 1,700,000?
With just hours until resolution, the Iranian Rial is trading at 1.59 million per USD, requiring a mathematically improbable 6.5 percent intraday collapse to hit the 1.7 million threshold.
What will Jamie Dimon say during Fox News: Fox & Friends?
Dimon has mentioned AI in over 80% of his 2026 appearances, recently warning that the technology could wipe out millions of American jobs—a perfect populist hook for Fox & Friends.
Will the Supreme Court release its opinion for Louisiana v. Callais before Apr 1, 2026?
Despite today's scheduled opinion release, blockbuster Voting Rights Act cases historically have a near-zero chance of dropping before June, making a March 31 release highly unlikely.
Will Whatever's Clever! have at least 10000 pure album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for April 2, 2026?
Despite overwhelming market confidence, Charlie Puth's previous album missed the 10,000 pure sales mark on Hits Daily Double, and industry-wide physical sales have only decayed further since 2022.
Will above 70000 jobs be added in March 2026? — 70,000
Wall Street consensus sits at just 57,000 jobs for March, and half of that is simply striking healthcare workers returning to the payroll amid a structurally cooling economy.
Will the maximum temperature be 86-87° on Mar 30, 2026?
With Oklahoma City waking up to a 66°F morning—21 degrees above average—the stage is set for a massive overshoot of the narrow 86-87°F forecast bin.
Rain in Dallas in Mar 2026?
DFW needs just 0.09 inches of rain to hit the 3-inch mark, but the National Weather Service explicitly forecasts a dry window until April 1.
Will THIS MUSIC MAY CONTAIN HOPE. have At least 30000 pure album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for April 02, 2026?
Hits Daily Double projects RAYE's total album activity at 70-100k, meaning she would need an unheard-of 30-40% pure sales ratio to hit 30,000.
Will Elon Musk's net worth on March 31, 2026 be above $640 billion?
With Tesla shares sliding 10% over the past month and just 48 hours until the deadline, Elon Musk faces a steep climb to bridge the final $3 billion gap.
Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 5 on Apr 1, 2026?
A massive 20-ship transit deal on March 28 mathematically skews the 7-day average, making the 5-ship daily hurdle highly achievable despite the broader blockade.
Will the maximum temperature be <81° on Mar 29, 2026?
While models project a high of 82°F, requiring a massive 24-degree single-day jump from yesterday's 57°F high leaves the 81°F ceiling highly vulnerable, making the 17% 'Yes' side a mispriced value.