Will more than 2450000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? — 2.45 million

Monday's throughput of 2,533,621 screenings on March 30, 2026, establishes a high floor for the week, already exceeding the 2.45 million target on a day that typically sees lower volume than the upcoming holiday weekend. This performance is bolstered by the resumption of backpay for TSA officers on March 30, which has already driven nationwide callout rates down from a 50% peak to approximately 10% as of March 29, according to union reports and TSA data. The inclusion of Good Friday on April 3 and Easter Sunday on April 5 provides a massive seasonal tailwind, as these are historically two of the highest-volume travel days of the spring season. Airlines for America (A4A) has projected a record-breaking spring window with 171 million total passengers, implying a daily average of 2.8 million travelers through April 30, 2026. Staffing bottlenecks that plagued mid-March are easing rapidly as the federal funding impasse resolves. With wait times at major hubs like Atlanta and Baltimore shrinking from three hours to under sixty minutes as of March 31, the agency's throughput capacity is returning to its structural peak just in time for the Easter surge.

Structural mid-week lulls remain a significant drag on the weekly average, with Tuesday and Wednesday volumes frequently dipping below 2.4 million during the current spring season. TSA data from March 24 and March 25 showed throughputs of 2.19 million and 2.37 million respectively, suggesting that even a strong weekend must compensate for deep mid-week deficits. The partial government shutdown has left a lasting mark on the workforce, including over 450 confirmed resignations and a backlog of disciplinary actions for officers who missed shifts. This permanent loss of experienced personnel could create a hard capacity ceiling at major hubs, preventing the agency from hitting the 2.8 million daily peaks seen in previous record years. Economic headwinds including domestic airfares averaging $815 and rising jet fuel costs linked to the conflict in Iran may deter price-sensitive leisure travelers. If these costs lead to lower-than-expected load factors on Easter Sunday, the weekly average could narrowly miss the 2.45 million threshold despite the holiday context.