Past Picks
Resolved picks with full analysis and outcomes. Our track record, open for inspection.
Los Angeles D vs Los Angeles A Winner?
The market prices the Dodgers at 92c, ignoring the fundamental variance of baseball. No favorite is a 92% lock in a sport where the worst team beats the best weekly.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
Trump’s 2026 platform is built on blockchain, but the market only prices a 25% chance he mentions crypto at the SOTU. That’s a low-ball for a core economic pillar.
What will Donald Trump say during 2026 State of the Union?
The market prices a 51% chance Trump uses rally-stage rhetoric for his SOTU. Teleprompters usually kill the freestyle, making our 35% estimate the more likely outcome.
Snow in New York City from Feb 21 - Feb 24?
A 60% probability for 15 inches of snow is a 1-in-50 year outlier. The market is treating a freak storm like a certainty, ignoring the 35% historical reality.
Will Cloud 9 have At Least 60000 album sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for February 27, 2026?
A 5-cent gap is all that separates the 55K and 60K sales tiers for Cloud 9. That implies a conditional probability that math just can't justify at 60c.
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
72% odds for an independent influencer to attend the SOTU is an extreme overestimation. Protocol usually reserves those seats for guests who aren't just there for the vlog.
Will Ketanji Brown Jackson attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
80% of Supreme Court Justices attend the SOTU historically, yet KBJ is priced at 34c. History suggests this is a massive miscalculation of judicial protocol.
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks on the Economy?
Trump's signature 'Drill Baby Drill' slogan sits at a 19% discount for his economic remarks. History suggests this catchphrase is a staple, not a longshot.
What will the announcers say during Boston vs Golden State Professional Basketball Game?
Celtics-Warriors features the highest volume shooters in the league, yet an 'Airball' mention sits at 58c. The math favors the miss.
Will Barron Trump attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
Barron Trump is only 33% likely to show up in the executive gallery. Immediate family members are usually a 100% lock for the SOTU.
What will Robin Kelly or Raja Krishnamoorthi or Juliana Stratton say during Illinois U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Debate originally scheduled for February 19th?
The Illinois Senate debate is priced at 67c for core local topics. Ticker confusion might be masking a 90% statistical lock.
Will Anthony Kennedy attend the 2026 State of the Union Address?
The market prices an 89-year-old retired Justice at 57c to attend the State of the Union. Historical attendance for retirees is near zero.
What will the announcers say during Los Angeles C vs Los Angeles L Professional Basketball Game?
A 42% chance for a 'retirement' mention during a 2026 Lakers game feels light. The narrative arc for aging superstars is already written.
How many streams will the top song on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA for Feb 20, 2026 have?
The market prices a Friday #1 hit at 7c to clear the volume bar. It's treating New Music Friday like a sleepy Monday morning.