Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 be above 70K?

The broader market consensus sits comfortably below the 70K threshold. FactSet consensus is 60K, and Seeking Alpha reports 51K. Both are well below the market's target, indicating that mainstream economists do not expect the strike rebound to push the headline number above 70K. The underlying labor market momentum is exceptionally weak, with the trailing 12-month average for NFP growth collapsing to just 13,000 jobs per month. The immediate economic shock from the Iran war, which began on February 28, triggered a sharp spike in oil prices and a corresponding freeze in corporate hiring sentiment. This is reflected in a 25% sequential increase in job cuts in the March Challenger Report. Because the BLS survey week includes the 12th of the month, it will capture the immediate chilling effect this geopolitical shock had on corporate hiring and consumer demand. Severe weather disruption during the critical BLS reference week (March 8-14) further threatens the headline number. Winter Storm Iona brought blizzard conditions to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic starting March 13, likely suppressing hours worked and payroll entries for hourly employees in construction and retail. Combined with government payrolls that shed 10K jobs in February, the structural bias is heavily skewed toward a miss.

The return of approximately 31,000 striking healthcare workers from Kaiser Permanente provides a massive, guaranteed tailwind to the March payroll figure. Because these workers were absent from February payrolls, their return acts as a one-time mechanical boost that could easily bridge the gap to 70,000 if the rest of the economy adds even a modest 40,000 jobs. The ADP National Employment Report for March surprised to the upside at 62,000 jobs, exceeding the 40,000 consensus estimate. Small businesses were a major driver, adding 85,000 jobs. If the BLS survey captures this small-business resilience and adds government hiring on top of it, the total nonfarm payroll figure could easily exceed the 70K threshold. Historically, the BLS has shown a zig-zag pattern where a deeply negative month like February's -92,000 is followed by a significant positive correction as seasonal adjustments normalize. The MNI survey of primary dealers shows a median expectation of exactly 70K, with estimates ranging up to 115K, showing that a print above 70K is well within mainstream economic forecasts.