Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.375M?

The January 2026 housing starts figure of 1.487M provides a significant buffer above the 1.375M threshold. This strength was supported by a 7.2% month-over-month increase, demonstrating underlying resilience in the construction sector. Even with a moderate pullback, the baseline momentum from early 2026 requires a severe, immediate contraction to fall below the target. Crucially, March 2026 was the warmest on record for the contiguous United States, with temperatures 9.4 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions typically accelerate the commencement of new construction projects by extending the viable building window and reducing weather-related site delays. This physical tailwind directly counteracts the financial headwinds of rising rates. Furthermore, not all institutional models agree with the bearish consensus. Continuum Economics explicitly forecasts March housing starts to rise to 1.40M, expecting single-family starts to increase by 1.1% and multifamily by 2.2%. Builder sentiment also showed a slight uptick, with the NAHB Housing Market Index rising from 36 in February to 38 in March, indicating that some builders are pushing through projects for the spring selling season.

The primary risk to a YES resolution is the mathematical constraint implied by leading indicators and institutional forecasts. Fannie Mae's March 2026 forecast projects total housing starts for Q1 at just 1.267M units. Given the strong January print, this implies February and March starts must average approximately 1.157M, well below our threshold. Additionally, mortgage rates experienced a sharp spike in late March, climbing to 6.61% following the Iran conflict and subsequent oil price shock. This sudden increase in borrowing costs typically leads to immediate pullbacks in new construction starts as builder confidence in buyer affordability evaporates. Finally, the pipeline of approved projects is shrinking. January building permits fell 5.4% to 1.386M, and multifamily starts (524K) vastly exceeded permits (453K). Because starts cannot outpace permits indefinitely, this 71,000-unit gap strongly suggests a sharp downward reversion in the volatile multifamily segment is imminent.