Will there be more than 90 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 20, 2026 to Apr 26, 2026?

The mathematical reality of the 2026 Iran conflict makes reaching 91 transits highly improbable. Since the war escalated, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted. IMF PortWatch data shows daily transits averaged just 6 to 7 ships between March 1 and April 12. To reach the market's threshold of 91 transits for the week of April 20-26, the strait would need to average nearly 13 ships per day. Recent escalations have driven traffic even lower, destroying any chance of a mid-week recovery. On April 19, Windward Maritime AI reported only 3 transits through the strait. Any hopes of a diplomatic normalization were shattered on April 22, when Iranian forces seized two container ships, the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas, and fired upon a third. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has explicitly stated that disruption in the strait is their 'red line.' Furthermore, the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, implemented by CENTCOM on April 13, remains in full effect. With both US and Iranian forces actively interdicting vessels, shipping conglomerates will not risk multi-million dollar assets in an active free-fire zone. Even with a slight uptick to 11 ships reported on April 23, the run-rate remains strictly below the required 12.86 daily average.

A brief surge in traffic was observed on April 17 as vessels attempted to rush through the Strait during a short-lived ceasefire announcement. If this momentum carried into the first two days of the target period (April 20-21) before the IRGC seizures on Wednesday, the early-week volume could provide a sufficient buffer to push the total count over 90 despite a late-week collapse. Additionally, the official IMF PortWatch data may undercount the true volume of traffic due to 'dark' transits or broader vessel classifications. Vessels are increasingly crossing with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off to avoid detection. If the IMF updates its methodology to estimate and include these dark transits, or includes smaller regional dhows unaffected by the blockade, the official reported number could retroactively exceed the 90-ship threshold. Finally, Vortexa reports over 150 commercial vessels are currently loitering outside the Strait of Hormuz. If the US military intervenes directly to force the strait open by organizing a heavily armed, mass escort operation for this stranded commercial fleet before April 26, the resulting convoy could easily push the weekly transit count past 91 in a single day.