Will there be more than 70 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 20, 2026 to Apr 26, 2026?

The mathematical reality of reaching 71 transits requires an average of 10.1 ships per day. While the contrarian analyst notes that early-week traffic showed a brief pulse of 29 calls across Monday and Tuesday, the operational environment deteriorated sharply on April 22. As highlighted by the skeptical risk manager, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized two container ships, the EPAMINONDAS and MSC FRANCESCA. This escalation immediately chilled commercial movement, with LSEG data reporting only 8 ships crossing the strait on Wednesday, a 94% collapse from pre-war averages. Furthermore, the US naval blockade initiated on April 13 remains in full effect. The calibration forecaster points out that US CENTCOM reported directing 33 vessels to turn around or return to port, actively suppressing maritime traffic. With major carriers suspending operations and vessels increasingly 'going dark' by disabling their AIS transponders to avoid detection—a factor emphasized by the balanced weigher—the visible traffic captured by IMF PortWatch is systematically suppressed. Even with the early-week buffer, the remaining days would need to average over 8 transits per day. Given that daily counts have recently hit lows of 3 to 6 ships, and President Trump issued new threats on April 23 to 'shoot and kill' Iranian mine-layers, the risk premium is simply too high for a late-week surge to materialize.

The primary risk to the downside (a YES resolution) lies in the massive backlog of vessels currently loitering outside the strait. The balanced weigher notes that 24 tankers and 14 Indian ships are idling in the Gulf of Oman. If a sudden diplomatic breakthrough occurs—building on the April 21 ceasefire extension—a coordinated release of this backlog could see dozens of ships transit in a single 48-hour window, easily pushing the weekly total above 70. Additionally, IMF PortWatch data relies on satellite-captured AIS signals and algorithmic estimates to track 'transit calls.' If their methodology captures a significant volume of 'dark' fleet movements, local dhows, or smaller cargo vessels that are less sensitive to the blockade, the baseline count could be higher than the 3-8 daily transits cited by real-time news reports. Finally, historical data from the previous week (April 13-19) showed a total of 84 transit calls despite the blockade, driven by a one-time surge of 35 vessels on April 18. The contrarian analyst argues that a similar single-day convoy or naval-escorted rush over the April 25-26 weekend could theoretically offset the mid-week lull.