Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 20, 2026 to Apr 26, 2026?

The mathematical reality of the first four days of the April 20-26 period makes reaching 51 transits highly improbable. According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, only 3 vessels transited the Strait on April 20. Reuters confirmed that only 3 ships passed on April 21, and HSToday reported just 5 crossings on April 23. With approximately 14 total transits over the first four days, the remaining three days would need to average more than 12 transits per day to breach the threshold, a fourfold increase over the current run rate. The security situation actively deteriorated mid-week, destroying any remaining commercial confidence. On April 22, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized two MSC container ships, the MSC Francesca and MSC Epaminondas. In direct response to these escalations, the IMO Secretary-General issued a stark warning on April 24, stating unequivocally that there is no safe transit anywhere in the Strait of Hormuz. Finally, the physical capacity for transits is being actively suppressed by the U.S. naval blockade. As of April 22, U.S. Central Command reported that American forces had directed 31 vessels to turn around or return to port. With both the U.S. Navy enforcing a blockade and Iranian forces actively seizing ships that attempt the crossing, the physical and geopolitical conditions simply do not support a sudden surge in maritime traffic.

The threshold of 50 transits is a historically low bar, representing less than 6% of the pre-war average of 140 ships per day. During the brief ceasefire period from April 8 to April 19, daily vessel calls averaged 10.1. If that momentum carried over into the very beginning of the April 20-26 window before the blockade fully tightened, the week could have banked enough early transits to make the 50-ship threshold achievable with only a trickle of late-week traffic. Iranian ghost fleet activity remains a significant variable. At least 27 tankers laden with Iranian oil were operating in the Persian Gulf as of April 21, attempting the crossing to reach buyers in China. If these vessels, combined with essential LNG carriers and humanitarian shipments, maintained a steady flow, the weekly total could comfortably clear the market threshold despite the halt in major commercial shipping. Data resolution nuances could also favor a YES outcome. IMF PortWatch relies on AIS signals, which can be subject to revisions or delayed reporting of vessels that were loitering near the strait before crossing. If the final reconciled PortWatch data incorporates satellite imagery revealing a higher number of dark vessels that successfully navigated the strait, the official count could resolve significantly higher than real-time news reports suggest.