Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 20, 2026 to Apr 26, 2026?

The mathematical reality of the current blockade makes reaching 160 transits virtually impossible. According to Windward Maritime AI and Marine Link, daily transits dropped to just three vessels between April 19 and April 22. With the first three days of the April 20-26 period recording single-digit transits, the remaining four days would need to average nearly 38 ships per day to reach the threshold. The geopolitical environment is actively deteriorating, ensuring the blockade remains tight. A two-week ceasefire declared earlier in April has effectively collapsed, and the U.S. military recently seized an Iranian-linked tanker in international waters. The USS Spruance disabled the Iranian cargo vessel Touska on April 19, signaling a high-intensity enforcement regime that has deterred commercial shipowners. Even if a diplomatic miracle occurs, the logistical friction of restarting transit is immense. While military planners from over 30 countries convened in London on April 22 to discuss reopening the strait, they noted this would only happen 'once conditions allow.' Coordinating insurance and military escorts for the 870 backlogged vessels will take weeks, not days.

A sudden diplomatic breakthrough in Islamabad could lead to an immediate reopening of the strait, triggering a massive surge in traffic. Pakistan has deployed 20,000 security personnel for high-level Iran-U.S. talks. If a complete and safe opening is announced, the backlog of 870 loitering vessels in the Gulf of Oman could rush to transit, rapidly inflating the count in the final days of the week. Furthermore, IMF PortWatch data relies on AIS signals, which have been subject to severe manipulation during the conflict. Intelligence firms have noted up to 140 'dark' maritime events involving vessels with disabled AIS. If PortWatch retroactively updates its methodology using satellite imagery to include these dark transits, the official count could spike unexpectedly. Historically, the Strait of Hormuz handles around 100 ships per day in peacetime. The physical infrastructure easily exists to push 160 ships through in just two days if Iran and the U.S. reach a sudden backchannel agreement to allow specific classes of vessels to pass freely.