Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on May 10, 2026?

The strongest argument against a YES resolution is the live observation data from the morning of May 10. At 4:42 AM EDT, the temperature at Miami International Airport (KMIA) was 80°F. With sunrise at 6:37 AM EDT, the window for radiational cooling has effectively closed. The temperature has only dropped one degree since midnight, making a further 3-4 degree drop before sunrise meteorologically implausible. Furthermore, the official NWS updated point forecast issued early on May 10 revised the overnight low upward to 81°F. This means the morning minimum will miss the target 76-77°F bin entirely on the high side. For the market to resolve YES, the daily minimum must now be set during the late afternoon or evening hours. Finally, relying on an evening thunderstorm to hit a narrow 2-degree bin is a statistically losing proposition. While commercial forecasts show up to a 75% chance of afternoon rain, evaporative cooling is highly volatile. With a dewpoint of 73°F, a direct thunderstorm hit is just as likely to crash the temperature down to 74-75°F, overshooting the target bin and still resulting in a NO resolution.

The primary path to a YES resolution relies on a perfectly timed and calibrated afternoon or evening thunderstorm. If a convective storm passes directly over the KMIA sensor later today, evaporative cooling could rapidly drop the ambient temperature from the 80s or 90s down into the 70s. If this rain-cooled downdraft is moderate—strong enough to break the 80°F morning low but not severe enough to push temperatures all the way down to the 73°F dewpoint floor—the daily minimum could stall exactly in the 76-77°F range before the midnight cutoff. Additionally, early NWS point forecasts from May 9 explicitly targeted a low of 77°F. If the morning observations of 80°F were anomalous or if a sudden, unforecasted cold pool developed just before sunrise, the temperature could have briefly clipped 77°F, securing a YES resolution before the day even truly began.