Will the brent crude oil close price be above 104 USD/Bbl on May 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Brent crude is currently trading between $98 and $101 as of the morning of May 7, 2026, leaving a massive 3-4% gap to reach the $104 threshold by the 5:00 PM EDT deadline. The market is reeling from a brutal 7-11% sell-off over the last 48 hours, triggered by reports that the US and Iran are nearing a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This shift in sentiment has effectively collapsed the geopolitical risk premium that previously held prices above $114. Fundamental pressure from demand destruction is also capping any potential intraday recovery. Goldman Sachs and Citi report that sustained high energy prices have already reduced global demand by approximately 1.7 million barrels per day this quarter. With refined product buffers depleting, the economic incentive for a sustained price spike is weakening as industrial consumers scale back operations. Technical resistance levels are firmly established well below the $104 threshold. Intraday charts show failed rallies at $101, with bearish momentum intact. Without a definitive collapse of the peace talks within the next few hours, there is simply insufficient buying pressure to drive a $3.00+ rally in such a short window.

The primary risk to a sub-$104 close is the highly volatile rhetoric surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. While optimism is high, a senior Iranian lawmaker described the US proposal as an 'American wish list' rather than a practical solution on May 7. A formal rejection of the terms by Tehran before the 5:00 PM close would instantly restore the war premium and likely trigger a violent short-covering rally. President Trump has also injected significant tail risk into the afternoon trading session. He explicitly threatened to resume military strikes at a much higher intensity if negotiations fail. Any perceived breakdown in talks or a sudden kinetic incident in the Persian Gulf would override the current peace-deal narrative and push prices back toward the $110 level. Finally, intraday volatility in oil markets is currently extreme. On May 6, the Brent crude daily range spanned from a low of $96.75 to a high of $109.02, a swing of over $12. A $3 to $4 upward move is well within the current daily true range if a sudden catalyst emerges, especially given low liquidity in the BRENTN6 contract during the final hours of the trading session.