Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00?

Momentum is the decisive factor. The AAA National Average surged 2.4 cents overnight to $2.975 on February 25, 2026, nearly closing the gap to the $3.00 target in a single day. This acceleration is driven by a severe supply crunch on the West Coast, where Washington state prices have spiked 40 cents in the last month due to refinery maintenance and the seasonal transition to summer-blend gasoline. With the national average just 2.6 cents away from the strike price and three reporting days left (Feb 26, 27, 28), maintaining even half of yesterday's momentum would clear the threshold. Geopolitical tensions are adding a premium to crude inputs. The EIA reported on February 6 that escalating tensions with Iran and disruptions in Kazakhstan pushed Brent crude from $62 to $72 per barrel in late January. While the long-term forecast for 2026 is bearish, the immediate 'rockets and feathers' effect means pump prices are currently reacting fast to these upstream shocks. The 39% market price implies a reversion to a slow grind, but the data shows a breakout: the 7-day rate of change has accelerated from +0.7 cents/day to +2.4 cents/day.

The recent 2.4-cent jump may be a one-off anomaly rather than a sustainable trend. Prior to yesterday, the 7-day average increase was only 0.74 cents per day. If the daily change reverts to this baseline, the price will land at approximately $2.997 by February 28—painfully close but strictly below the $3.000 resolution threshold. The 'Screener Theory' highlights a massive probability mass (48%) priced between $2.98 and $3.00, suggesting sophisticated traders see the rally stalling exactly in this resistance zone. Structurally, the EIA's February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts lower gasoline prices for the year, citing global production exceeding demand. If the West Coast refinery issues are resolved or priced in, the national average could plateau immediately. Additionally, weekend reporting (Feb 28 is a Saturday) often sees lower volatility or sticky prices compared to mid-week adjustments, potentially leaving the average stranded just pennies short of the target.