Will average gas prices be above $2.98?

The current AAA national average is already above the threshold at $2.983 as of Feb 26, 2026. This provides a 0.3-cent buffer above the $2.98 strike price with only 48 hours remaining until resolution. Retail gas prices exhibit 'rocket and feather' dynamics—they rise quickly but fall slowly. Even if oil prices dip, pump prices rarely drop 0.4 cents in two days during a structural uptrend. Structural factors are forcing prices higher, not lower. AAA confirmed on Feb 26 that the 'seasonal shift toward rising gas prices is underway' due to the transition to summer-blend gasoline. This annual switch requires refineries to produce more expensive, lower-volatility fuel, historically adding 5-10 cents per gallon between February and April. This physical market constraint creates a high floor for prices over the next 48 hours. Geopolitical tension provides a secondary tailwind. While WTI crude dipped slightly on Wednesday, it remains in a bullish trend driven by US-Iran tensions. Gasoline futures rose 1.85% on Feb 26 to $2.03/gallon, signaling that the wholesale market expects continued firmness. This wholesale strength will filter into retail prices, making a sudden drop below $2.98 statistically improbable.

Recent inventory data suggests a potential short-term stall in the rally. The EIA reported a 16-million-barrel build in crude oil inventories on Feb 25, significantly above expectations. This supply glut caused WTI to fall 21 cents to $65.42. If this bearish sentiment hits the retail market faster than usual, we could see a pause in the daily price increases. Weekend pricing dynamics often see a softening of the aggressive weekday rises. GasBuddy analysis notes that prices can peak on Fridays and stabilize or dip slightly over the weekend. With the resolution date falling on Saturday, Feb 28, the lack of a Friday/Saturday upward push could leave the price hovering dangerously close to the $2.980 mark. Resolution risk remains the most significant threat. While AAA reports to three decimal places ($2.983), some public-facing charts round to two decimals ($2.98). If the market resolves based on a rounded figure of $2.98, it would fail the 'strictly greater than' condition. Given the price is only 0.003 above the line, a tiny fluctuation or rounding convention could trigger a technical NO.