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Will Ariana Grande attend 32nd Annual Actor Awards?

The Setup

Ariana Grande is a confirmed nominee for the 32nd SAG Awards on March 1, 2026, yet the market is pricing her attendance at a coin flip (58%). With her tour not starting until June and recent attendance at the AFI Awards proving she isn't boycotting, this price reflects a massive inefficiency driven by 'snub' headlines rather than facts.

While the Oscars snubbed Wicked completely, the SAGs nominated Ariana—and with her tour not starting until June 6, she has zero reason to skip her moment as the film's sole representative.

Market
58c
Our Estimate
88-96c
Edge
+34c

Bull Case

Ariana Grande is a confirmed nominee for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role for *Wicked: For Good* at the 32nd Annual Actor Awards (SAG Awards), taking place March 1, 2026. Historical base rates for acting nominees attending the ceremony are extremely high (>95%), particularly for solo nominees representing a major studio film. Unlike the Oscars, where *Wicked* was shut out, the SAG Awards recognized Grande, creating a strong incentive for her to attend and validate her transition to serious acting. Crucially, there are no schedule conflicts. Her *Eternal Sunshine Tour* does not begin until June 6, 2026, in Oakland, leaving her schedule clear for the March 1 ceremony in Los Angeles. Furthermore, she already demonstrated her willingness to participate in the awards circuit despite co-star Cynthia Erivo's snub by attending the AFI Awards on January 9, 2026—two days *after* the SAG nominations were announced. This directly refutes the 'solidarity boycott' theory. Media confirmation further solidifies this view. A *Marie Claire* report from February 24, 2026, explicitly lists Grande as one of the nominees 'expected to grace this year's revamped red carpet.' With the event taking place in Los Angeles (Shrine Auditorium) where she is currently based for pre-tour preparations, the logistical friction is near zero.

Bear Case

The primary risk is a last-minute withdrawal due to 'solidarity' with co-star Cynthia Erivo, who was snubbed by both the SAG Awards and the Oscars. While Grande attended the AFI Awards, the narrative around the *Wicked* press tour being 'creepy' and 'alienating' to voters (reported by *NewsNation* and *Gulf News* in late January 2026) might lead her team to pull her from the red carpet to avoid further negative press or awkward questions about the film's underperformance in nominations. Additionally, filming schedules for her upcoming projects could interfere. Reports indicate she is slated to begin filming *American Horror Story* in 'Spring 2026' and is currently involved in *Focker-in-Law*. If production schedules for these projects demand her presence on set or location shoots outside Los Angeles during the March 1 weekend, she might skip the ceremony, especially given the film's broader lack of awards momentum.

What Could Go Wrong

IF Ariana Grande releases a statement citing 'illness' or 'personal reasons' in the 48 hours before the show, THEN she will not attend. IF a 'solidarity boycott' is organized by the *Wicked* cast or Universal Pictures to protest the industry's treatment of the film (specifically Cynthia Erivo's snub), THEN Grande would likely skip the event.

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