Snow in New York City in Feb 21 - Feb 24?

The National Weather Service (NWS) explicitly upgraded the Manhattan Zone Forecast on the afternoon of Feb 22 to a storm total of "18 to 24 inches" (Source: NWS Zone Forecast, Feb 22, 4:51 PM). This contradicts earlier morning guidance of 12-18 inches and aligns with Governor Hochul's 5:00 PM briefing stating the storm will "exceed all expectations" with potential for "two feet of snow" in NYC. The NWS Area Forecast Discussion notes that while models were manually adjusted down due to high outliers, the liquid equivalent forecast of 1.5-2.0 inches combined with increasing snow ratios (12-14:1 on Monday) mathematically supports a 20-24 inch outcome. Snowfall rates are projected to reach 2-4 inches per hour Sunday night into Monday morning, a hallmark of historic blizzards that overcome mixing issues. Fox Weather and local officials have shifted their messaging to a "16 to 24 inch" expectation for the city, moving the consensus mean to approximately 20 inches. With the resolution threshold at >18.0 inches, a forecast centered on 20-21 inches implies a probability significantly higher than the market's 42%.

The resolution rule requires snowfall to be *strictly greater* than 18.0 inches, meaning a landing of exactly 18.0 inches results in a loss. CBS News (Feb 22, 5:45 PM) continues to forecast "12-18 inches" for NYC proper, reserving the 18-24 inch totals for southern Brooklyn/Queens and Long Island. This suggests a sharp gradient where Central Park (the resolution station) could fall on the lower side of the accumulation band, similar to the 2017 Stella blizzard bust. Warm air intrusion remains a critical risk. The NWS discussion notes a "passing warm front" and Google Weather forecasts "rain and snow" mixing in. If surface temperatures hover near 33-34°F on Monday as predicted, compaction could limit the official snowboard measurement despite high liquid equivalents. Historically, NYC blizzards often underperform high-end forecasts due to the "dry slot" or mixing, and a 1.5" liquid event at a heavy, wet 8:1 ratio would only yield 12 inches.